rural-urban dynamics_report.pdf - Khazar University

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140 URBANIZATION AND THE MDGS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 BOX 3.3 Do cities need master plans? Instead of drawing up a master plan and making a large effort to update it every 10 years, as is frequently the pattern, it may be better to produce a much simpler spatial strategy document that could be updated every year by staff of a city’s urban planning department. The emphasis of such a document would be on the current spatial situation and spatial trends. Its main objectives would be to ensure housing and land affordability and adequate mobility. Such a process would focus on analyzing real estate prices and supply and demand constraints for all income groups, firms, and households. The plan would cover three topics: land use and spatially distributed demographics; road and transport networks; and land use and development regulations. Rather than attempting to cover all sectors, when the spatial strategy is approved by government, it could be distributed to line agencies that have the technical expertise to develop sectoral plans that are consistent with spatial distribution of people and jobs, as well as consistent with their budget constraints. It is important to provide the line agencies with a constantly updated spatial distribution of populations so that they can adjust their investment programs to meet current and future demand. This proposal is not revolutionary. Most master plans around the world are largely ignored (even in China). In Vietnam, master plans are often referred to as “hanging plans,” suggesting that they often decorate the walls of planning departments but are rarely implemented. As in most countries, Vietnam line agencies typically make investment decisions based on their own population projections, which are rarely consistent with master plans and often differ between agencies. Changing the planning process to be more in line with market dynamics would lead to better and more consistent development outcomes. Singapore and Hong Kong are good examples of land use planning and internal consistency between spatial objectives and the provision of physical and social infrastructure. Source: World Bank 2011. by pushing development out to new towns and suburban industrial estates, disconnecting people from job opportunities (World Bank 2013b). But this strategy ignores an opportunity: India’s cities could instead use rising land values to finance better, highercapacity infrastructure, to increase office space, and to add affordable housing for lowand moderate-income groups. Keeping densities low and failing to coordinate density with infrastructure suppresses economic growth, most importantly exacerbating housing shortages and affordability. Cities’ plans and zoning designations need to reflect market realities. The consequence of master plans that artificially limit land supply can be soaring land prices. When plans underestimate required land uses, such as residential, industrial, commercial, and services, land prices for parcels zoned as such tend to sell at higher prices than would be set in the marketplace. In many cities in the developing world, urban planning consists of designing the expansion of cities using norms and spatial choices that reflect the preferences of urban planners rather than to supply constraints and consumer demands. The result is often a master plan that is ineffective for both forecasting and guiding urban development (box 3.3). Integrate land use and mobility planning When urban land and building regulations limit densities in urban areas, they push people and firms to the outskirts. When cities are forced to grow out instead of up, the urban transport network becomes increasingly important as the only way to connect people to jobs. A good transport system allows people to make efficient trade-offs between the housing type and amenities they consume and the distance they travel to work. When the network is deficient, the problems stemming from stringent regulations in land markets are exacerbated. For example, people may be forced to live in slums close to job
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 URBANIZATION AND THE MDGS 141 BOX 3.4 Publicly accessible information on urban hazard risk can improve household decision making With access to good information about hazard risk, households can make better decisions on where to live, depending on the location’s proximity to job centers, the quality and cost of transport services, and the location’s risk of exposure to natural hazards. Some examples of such information systems include: • The Bogotá Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project, launched in 2006, invested in information collection and vulnerability assessments for better targeting of risk reduction measures. One output was a database of earthquake vulnerability scores for all buildings in the city that helps prioritize upgrades and makes insurance markets more transparent (Prasad et al. 2009). • Jakarta and Can Tho (Vietnam) recently carried out vulnerability assessments with World Bank support (World Bank 2012b). The studies demonstrate the use of geographically referenced data to pinpoint hazard risk and to support cost-benefit analysis of various risk reduction strategies. Floodprone Jakarta, for instance, is considering measures such as drainage improvement, river improvement, upgrading of retention ponds, and various options for a coastal defense infrastructure. • Better risk information supported the introduction of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, a risk transfer mechanism set up after the Marmara earthquake in 1999 that killed at least 17,000 people and damaged 120,000 houses in the Istanbul region. The program reduced households’ financial damages by enabling them to have catastrophic insurance and encouraging physical risk mitigation. • A joint study by the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency assessed future climate risks for coastal megacities and found that by 2050, the frequency of major floods in Bangkok could increase from once every 50 years to once every 15 years. About 1 million inhabitants would be affected (ADB, JICA, and WB 2010). centers, often assuming natural hazard risks, because they cannot afford to move into formal housing or cannot access cheaper land on the outskirts of cities for lack of an efficient urban transport system. In Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, 45 percent of the houses in the largest slum are located near a river and are flooded in heavy rains (Fay, Ghesquiere, and Solo 2003). The poorest live in the lowest-quality dwellings in the areas most at risk. Likewise, informal settlements in Rio de Janeiro and Caracas cling to steep slopes with large landslide risk during rainstorms. Publicly available information on hazard risk can enable households to make informed decisions (box 3.4), but lack of coordinated land use and mobility improvements will force them to make suboptimal choices. Thus, plans to connect neighborhoods should be integrated with plans for urban land use, especially density plans. For any of these policies to benefit the city as intended, they must be integrated throughout the planning process. Urban transport is often an “institutional orphan,” however, with its responsibility often fragmented across agencies (World Bank 2013a). Land use planning is a core function of development authorities, with transport planning often limited to developing the road network. Such fragmentation of responsibilities results in inefficiencies. In Bangalore, a new airport several miles outside the city was close to being commissioned when city authorities realized that the road connecting the city to the airport was inadequate. Land use planning is integral to transport planning because land use largely determines transport demand. Different cities need different mixes of transport types, and different neighborhoods need different modes. Mass transport generally suits compact areas; private vehicles, more sprawling ones.
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Global Monitoring Report 2013 Rural
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© 2013 International Bank for Reco
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vi CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPOR
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viii CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REP
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Foreword Global Monitoring Report (
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Acknowledgments This report has bee
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Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB Asia
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GMR 2013 Rural-Urban Dynamics and t
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4 OVERVIEW GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT
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10 OVERVIEW GLOBAL MONITORING REPOR
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Goals and Targets from the Millenni
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Progress toward the MDGs Only two y
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primary completion, and access to s
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FIGURE 1a Poverty rates (living on
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MDG 2 Achieve universal primary edu
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MDG 3 Promote gender equality and e
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MDG 4 Reduce child mortality In mos
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MDG 5 Reduce maternal mortality MDG
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MDG 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and
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FIGURE 6e Children under age 5 who
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FIGURE 7b Access to sanitation by r
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Improving the measurement of develo
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1 Macroeconomic, Trade, and Aid Dev
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GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 MACRO
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2 Rural-Urban Disparities and Dynam
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GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 RURAL
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