Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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ister, General Staff at Odds Over Reform, Doctrine,” Moskovsky Komsomolets, February 15, 2007; “Partial Text of Army-General Gareev’s Report on New Russian Military Doctrine,” Voenno-Promyshlenny Kuriyer, January 24, 2007. 58. Viktor Myasnikov, “Serious Discussion of the New Doctrine Impends: the Academy of Military Sciences Will Be Gathering for its Annual Conference in January,” Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, January 9, 2007; Vadim Solovyev, “There Are More Enemies and the Enemies Have Become More Aggressive,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 10, 2007. 59. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. 60. Patrushev Interview, Interfax, October 13, 2009; Security Council’s Patrushev Interviewed on Military Doctrine, Izvestiya, October 14, 2009. 61. Ibid. 62. Available from www.lenta.ru, October 15, 2009. 63. Author interviews with Central Asian diplomats, December 2009. 64. “Pundit Says Patrushev Remarks Signal Lowered Nuclear Threshold, Russkaya Liniya, St. Petersburg, October 14, 2009. 65. Rosbalt, October 14, 2009, available from www.rosbalt. ru/2009/10/14/680419.html. 66. “Patrushev: New Military Doctrine to Stipulate Preemptive Nuclear Strikes,” October 14, 2009, available from www.segodnya.ru. 67. “New Military Doctrine Unlikely to Provide for Preventive Strikes,” Vedomosti, October 9, 2009; “Kremlin ‘Source’ Outlines New National Security Strategy,” April 29, 2009, available from www.gazeta.ru. 68. “Russian Defense Minister Reports to Duma on Military Reform,” Zvezda Television, February 11, 2009; “CGS Makarov 93
Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks of New Military Doctrine,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 25, 2009. 69. Krasnaya Zvezda, May 14, 2009, available from www.redstar.ru/2009/05/14—05/1—05.html. 70. “Russian Security Council Discusses Future Military Doctrine,” ITAR-TASS, August 5, 2009. 71. Roger N. McDermott, “The Restructuring of the Modern Russian Army,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 22, No. 4, 2009. 72. Vitaliy, Shlykov, “Serdyukov’s Blitzkrieg,” Rossiya v Globalnoy Politike, No. 6, November-December 2009. 73. Mikhail Rastopshin, “Voyennaya Mysl’ Versus the General Staff,” Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, March 31, 2010; Yuriy Borodin, “Brigade Fires Without a Miss,” Krasnaya Zvezda, November 23, 2009; Yuriy Borodin, “Proficiency Test,” Krasnaya Zvezda, November 23, 2009; Vladimir Semenchenko:, “What the Inspection Revealed,” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer, November 20, 2009; Aleksandr Sargin and Denis Telmanov, “An Army of Units That Are Rated ‘Satisfactory’,” Gazeta, November 12, 2009; “Russian Military Units’ Readiness Time Cut to One Hour-Makarov,” ITAR-TASS, November 17, 2009. 74. Jacob, W. Kipp, “Mistral Procurement Divides Russian Defense Leadership,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 6, Issue 225, December 8, 2009. 75. Gennadiy Miranovich, “Military Science: Assignment for Tomorrow,” Krasnaya Zvezda, December 21, 2009. 76. Ibid. 77. Emphasis by author. 78. “Ex-Security Official: Russia Should Keep Improving Strategic Forces,” Interfax, April 9, 2010. 79. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. 94
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
Page 53 and 54: ficers compared with society and th
Page 55 and 56: Many of these challenges are unlike
Page 57 and 58: Institute, examined some of these i
Page 59 and 60: of brigades in the table of organiz
Page 61 and 62: The performance of the brigades, fo
Page 63 and 64: employment will be effective when t
Page 65 and 66: RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
Page 67 and 68: The Search for the “New:” Defin
Page 69 and 70: on states; individual states violat
Page 71 and 72: almost verbatim. The third threat,
Page 73 and 74: ministry working group. Army-Genera
Page 75 and 76: Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
Page 77 and 78: Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
Page 79 and 80: identifying the intentions and fore
Page 81 and 82: The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 83 and 84: the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
Page 85 and 86: United States, Russia is in a diffe
Page 87 and 88: mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
Page 89 and 90: Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
Page 91 and 92: as among Alliance members, future B
Page 93 and 94: in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
Page 95 and 96: fearing that, unless handled sensit
Page 97 and 98: of strategic engagement with Russia
Page 99 and 100: 6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
Page 101 and 102: 28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
Page 103: 44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
Page 107 and 108: Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
Page 110 and 111: CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 112 and 113: tary and foreign policy, many polit
Page 114 and 115: In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
Page 116 and 117: 1970s had long-term effects on late
Page 118 and 119: ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
Page 120 and 121: educing strategic armaments and eve
Page 122 and 123: Internationally, the RF earned a du
Page 124 and 125: itary-political relations with West
Page 126 and 127: The situation in the armed forces t
Page 128 and 129: The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 130 and 131: In the latter case, they expected o
Page 132 and 133: As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
Page 134 and 135: facilitate the elimination of weapo
Page 136 and 137: Putin saw added opportunities for p
Page 138 and 139: the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
Page 140 and 141: sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
Page 142 and 143: and NATO provocations.” In partic
Page 144 and 145: econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147: CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
Page 148 and 149: eady developing the theory of strat
Page 150 and 151: termination of the Cold War and the
Page 152 and 153: goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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