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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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As seen by a <strong>Russian</strong> expert:<br />

In mid-2001 Putin suddenly softened the linkage [between<br />

strategic offensive <strong>and</strong> defensive weapons] . . .<br />

eventually permitting George W. Bush to scrap the<br />

ABM Treaty without worrying about an adequate<br />

<strong>Russian</strong> response. By doing so, Putin also undermined<br />

the arguments of the opposition in the United States to<br />

Bush’s decision that claimed that scrapping the Treaty<br />

would lead to a new armaments race. 64<br />

Similar realpolitik calculations apparently played a<br />

mitigating role in defining Russia’s reaction to the initial<br />

NATO enlargement. 65 Obviously, Vladimir Putin<br />

was personally responsible for preventing outbursts<br />

of indignation <strong>and</strong> promises of counteractions that<br />

could not be supported by actual demonstrations of<br />

<strong>Russian</strong> power <strong>and</strong> could do more harm than good to<br />

the <strong>Russian</strong> reputation in Europe <strong>and</strong> beyond.<br />

Moscow saw a relative “compensation” for ceding<br />

ground on the ABMT <strong>and</strong> taking an accommodating<br />

st<strong>and</strong> on global issues in the U.S. agreement to negotiate<br />

<strong>and</strong> conclude the “Strategic Offensive Reductions<br />

Treaty” (SORT), also referred to as the “Moscow<br />

Treaty. 66 The Kremlin presented the signing of the<br />

Treaty on May 24, 2002 as its “big success” despite<br />

the Treaty’s alleged deficiencies, such as lack of explicit<br />

elaborate verification <strong>and</strong> other implementing<br />

arrangements, on the analogy with START, <strong>and</strong> the<br />

possibility of “uploading” warheads removed from<br />

their carriers for storage <strong>and</strong> not elimination at some<br />

point in the future. 67<br />

As the Soviets before them, the <strong>Russian</strong>s saw arms<br />

control negotiations <strong>and</strong> agreements creating a quintessential<br />

paradigm for “equalizing” <strong>Russian</strong> <strong>and</strong> U.S.<br />

roles in such key areas of international diplomacy<br />

121

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