Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Medvedev, and the Russian
Military,” Chap. 12, in Stephen K. Wegren and Dale R. Herspring,
eds., After Putin’s Russia: Past Imperfect, Future Uncertain, Fourth
Ed., Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2010, pp. 265-290.
21. Jacob W. Kipp, “Russia’s Nuclear Posture and the Threat
That Dare not Speak Its Name,” paper presented at conference on
“Strategy and Doctrine in Russian Security Policy,” Ft. McNair,
National Defense University, Washington, DC, June 28, 2010, p. 5.
22. I gratefully acknowledge Dale Herspring for insights into
this issue. He is not responsible for arguments here. See also, on
the seriousness of Russian military reform, Keir Giles, “The Military
Doctrine of the Russian Federation 2010,” NATO Research
Review, Rome, Italy: NATO Defense College, February, 2010, esp.
p. 3.
23. Roger N. McDermott, “Russia’s Conventional Armed
Forces, Reform and Nuclear Posture to 2020,” paper presented at
conference on “Strategy and Doctrine in Russian Security Policy,”
Ft. McNair, National Defense University, Washington, DC, June
28, 2010.
24. Projections suggest that between now and 2025, Russia’s
pool of draft age manpower will decline at an even faster rate
than the rate for the general population. The implications of this
for the size and composition of Russia’s future forces are traced
in Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Lowell H. Schwartz, and Catherine
Yusupov, Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications, Santa
Monica, CA; RAND, 2009, pp. 145-151.
25. For an assessment of the 2010 doctrine on this point, see
Nikolai Sokov, “The New, 2010 Russian Military Doctrine: The
Nuclear Angle,” Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
Monterey Institute of International Studies, February 5, 2010,
available from cns.miis.edu/stories/100205_russian_nuclear_doctrine.
htm. See also, The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, available
from www.Kremlin.ru, February 5, 2010, in Johnson’s Russia
List 2010, #35, February 19, 2010, available from davidjohnson@
starpower.net.
26. Sokov, “Nuclear Weapons in Russian Security Strategy,”
p. 5.
453