Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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size-fits-all approach, although this was later successfully resisted by the VDV, despite the fact that it had always deployed at sub-divisional level with a brigade headquarters in its recent combat history. 12 The air force had to shed 50,000 positions, 13 or around 30 percent of existing air force officer positions. In January 2009, Colonel-General Alexander Zelin, the Commander in Chief (CINC) of the Voyenno-Vozdushnyye Sily (VVS) confirmed that the restructuring of the air force was underway: reforming 80 percent of units, among which 10 percent were to be disbanded, 22 percent redeployed, and 68 percent would experience staff changes. 14 The overall driving force in the transition to the brigade-based structure was to enhance the maneuverability of the ground forces. 15 Serdyukov also targeted the navy. Initially this centered on relocating its headquarters to St. Petersburg, though the costly move was postponed in response to concern over the recession and opposition from serving admirals. 16 In April 2009, the transfer process was “suspended”: of the main command’s 800 staffers, only 20 favored the move. 17 Rear Services were downsized, losing 40 percent of all officers, including a number of generals: 12,500 posts including 5,600 officers and warrant officers. Between 23 to 40 percent of all civilian posts were eliminated, 18 leaving around 300 individuals in the Rear Services central apparatus. 19 Many of its functions were civilianized, ranging from catering services, using civilian enterprises to provide fuel, to the provision of bathing and laundry services for the troops. 20 37
Implementation. Chief of the General Staff (CGS) Army-General Nikolai Makarov, a critical supportive figure in the reform, noted in December 2008 that to oversee and monitor the implementation of the reform, the General Staff sent its representatives into line units. Their sole task was to report on any instances of individuals seeking to sabotage the reform. 21 During 2009, the structural reforms planned as part of Serdyukov’s reforms were largely successful, in what by any standard represented a significant organizational achievement. In the process the mass mobilization system, cadres, and divisions (apart from the VDV) all passed quietly into history. Officer downsizing proved more complex, with various figures cited at different times as it progressed. However, by late 2009, officially, 85 permanent readiness brigades had been formed as well and the new three-tiered command and control system was in place. Medical staff lost 10,000 officer posts and 22 military hospitals were closed. 22 Additionally, 80 percent of all lawyers were dismissed, and only 20 officer positions in military media organizations remained—preserving those working for the official defense ministry publication, Krasnaya Zvezda. Military educational institutions were also earmarked for reduction from 65 to 10; three military educational centers, six academies, and one military university (streamlining the General Staff Academy), which was needed to serve a new role based on filling the brigades with effective commanders and promoting efficiency and higher standards in these institutions. Deputy Defense Minister Army-General Nikolay Pankov said most of the previous 65 institutions were only 60-70 percent full, and consequently they were 38
Page 1 and 2: Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
Page 3 and 4: ***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 5 and 6: Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
Page 8 and 9: INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
Page 10 and 11: future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
Page 12 and 13: CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
Page 14 and 15: States (CIS). For a number of reaso
Page 16 and 17: with nuclear weapons alone. General
Page 18 and 19: cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
Page 20 and 21: PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
Page 22 and 23: sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
Page 24 and 25: its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
Page 26 and 27: The words about the priority of nuc
Page 28 and 29: If the constant failures by the Bul
Page 30 and 31: LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
Page 32 and 33: prepare themselves against.” 51 A
Page 34 and 35: that day the directorates were enga
Page 36 and 37: USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
Page 38 and 39: 2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
Page 40 and 41: 28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
Page 42: 53. “The Military Doctrine of the
Page 45 and 46: mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
Page 47: 1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
Page 51 and 52: has not been followed by any obviou
Page 53 and 54: ficers compared with society and th
Page 55 and 56: Many of these challenges are unlike
Page 57 and 58: Institute, examined some of these i
Page 59 and 60: of brigades in the table of organiz
Page 61 and 62: The performance of the brigades, fo
Page 63 and 64: employment will be effective when t
Page 65 and 66: RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
Page 67 and 68: The Search for the “New:” Defin
Page 69 and 70: on states; individual states violat
Page 71 and 72: almost verbatim. The third threat,
Page 73 and 74: ministry working group. Army-Genera
Page 75 and 76: Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
Page 77 and 78: Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
Page 79 and 80: identifying the intentions and fore
Page 81 and 82: The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 83 and 84: the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
Page 85 and 86: United States, Russia is in a diffe
Page 87 and 88: mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
Page 89 and 90: Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
Page 91 and 92: as among Alliance members, future B
Page 93 and 94: in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
Page 95 and 96: fearing that, unless handled sensit
Page 97 and 98: of strategic engagement with Russia
Page 99 and 100:
6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
Page 101 and 102:
28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
Page 103 and 104:
44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
Page 105 and 106:
Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
Page 107 and 108:
Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
Page 116 and 117:
1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
Page 124 and 125:
itary-political relations with West
Page 126 and 127:
The situation in the armed forces t
Page 128 and 129:
The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 130 and 131:
In the latter case, they expected o
Page 132 and 133:
As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
Page 134 and 135:
facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147:
CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
Page 156 and 157:
5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
Page 158 and 159:
29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
Page 162 and 163:
62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
Page 164 and 165:
71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167:
90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
Page 168 and 169:
lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
Page 170:
125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174:
The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
Page 246 and 247:
Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
Page 250 and 251:
A positive element in all the confl
Page 252 and 253:
from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263:
5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
Page 264 and 265:
20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
Page 268 and 269:
50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
Page 274 and 275:
completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
Page 282 and 283:
wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
Page 288 and 289:
upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
Page 290 and 291:
the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293:
The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295:
There are aspects to their nuclear
Page 296 and 297:
that are likely to result in greate
Page 298 and 299:
ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
Page 300 and 301:
8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
Page 302:
31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310:
systems, our partners may come to f
Page 311 and 312:
increased purchases of weapons and
Page 313 and 314:
naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
Page 315 and 316:
state expenditures will supposedly
Page 317 and 318:
THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
Page 325 and 326:
the global and regional levels enta
Page 327 and 328:
ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
Page 329 and 330:
Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
Page 331 and 332:
Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
Page 339 and 340:
strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
Page 351 and 352:
The following analysis from 2004 to
Page 353 and 354:
Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
Page 367 and 368:
78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
Page 371 and 372:
121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
Page 377 and 378:
Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
Page 391 and 392:
Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
Page 411 and 412:
Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
Page 421 and 422:
48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
Page 452 and 453:
Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
Page 454 and 455:
The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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