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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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THE SHRINKING NUCLEAR FORCES<br />

Throughout the 1990s <strong>and</strong> into the next century,<br />

not only did Moscow experience problems with particular<br />

weapons systems, the number of nuclear weapons<br />

was decreasing. Note the following criticism:<br />

At the start of 1992, the <strong>Russian</strong> Federation had 6,347<br />

nuclear warheads. When Boris Yeltsin resigned at the<br />

end of 1999, he left his successor 5,842 warheads. At the<br />

start of 2007, Russia had 681 ICBMs (including SLBMs<br />

carried by submarines) with 2,460 warheads <strong>and</strong> 79<br />

strategic aircraft with 884 cruise missiles. That’s a total<br />

of 3,344 warheads. If current trends persist (new missiles<br />

are being built at an extremely slow rate, while<br />

the withdrawal of old missiles is accelerating), the<br />

Strategic <strong>Nuclear</strong> Forces might have no more than 300<br />

ICBMs by the middle of the next decade with no more<br />

than 600 warheads. 55<br />

In short, insofar as Moscow’s nuclear forces were<br />

concerned, the future looked anything but bright.<br />

THE STATUS OF CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS,<br />

2010<br />

If there were problems with nuclear forces, the<br />

problems with conventional weapons were even<br />

greater. This was brought home to the Kremlin in<br />

great clarity by the War with Georgia. The war began<br />

in chaos—especially among the high comm<strong>and</strong> in<br />

Moscow. As one <strong>Russian</strong> source put it:<br />

The Main Operations Directorate <strong>and</strong> the Main Organization<br />

Directorate found themselves on August 8,<br />

2008, in the street in the direct sense of the word. On<br />

22

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