Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

on nuclear weapons alone is simply not sustainable because
threat of nuclear use is not sufficiently credible
except in a relatively narrow range of circumstances.
Figure 5-1. Decision Tree.
It should be noted, however, that Russia’s 2000
National Security Concept regarded reliance on limited
nuclear use as a temporary fix until Russia builds up
its conventional capability, especially its precisionguided
weapons. A more modern conventional capability
together with modern reconnaissance and
targeting assets was supposed to enable Russia to
successfully deter, or, if deterrence fails, fight regional
conflicts. Thus, at least in theory, the limited-use missions
should eventually fade away. That thinking remains
valid today: in 2009, then-Commander of the
Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) Nikolai Solovtsov said
that reliance on nuclear weapons in the near future is
intended to buy time while Russia conducts military
reform and upgrades its conventional capability. 22
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