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46<br />

Table 3.5: Tests of the effects oflocal weather vari abl es on wi nter <strong>sur</strong>vival rates (w) in a popu<strong>la</strong>ti on of North American porcupines,<br />

Parc National <strong>du</strong> Bic, Québec, May 2000-May 2005. We used data on 159 indi vi<strong>du</strong>als. Mo<strong>de</strong>l in bold represents the selected mo<strong>de</strong>!.<br />

We show the percentage ofyearl y variati on in sUl'v ival that is exp<strong>la</strong>i ned by each environmental covari ate (r 2 )<br />

Biological meaning<br />

Year effect in winter only + age effect,F om Tab le 3.4<br />

Winter <strong>sur</strong>vival <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt on win ter precipitation + age effect<br />

Winter <strong>sur</strong>v ival <strong>de</strong> pen<strong>de</strong> nt on snowfall + age effect<br />

Winter <strong>sur</strong>vival <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt on spring temperature + age effect<br />

No yearly variation in winter <strong>sur</strong>vival + age effect<br />

Notationî Deviance np* t.AICc**<br />

U a<br />

w a<br />

810.049 7 10.389<br />

Ua w y + a<br />

795 .637 Il 5.041<br />

U a W Precipitations + a 797.442 8 0.000<br />

U a W Snowfall + a 802.543 8 5.10 1<br />

U a W Spring + a 808 .327 8 10.885<br />

r 2<br />

0.87<br />

0.52<br />

0.12<br />

0<br />

î U, summer; W, winter; y, year; a, age mo<strong>de</strong>lled as two age cl asses (juveniles, 2: 1-yr-old); *np, number of estimated param<strong>et</strong>ers; ** t.AICc,<br />

di fference in AICc with the selected mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />

Table 3.6: Tests of<strong>la</strong>gged (one year: y-l ; two years: y-2) effects ofwinter precipitation on winter <strong>sur</strong>vival rates (w) in a popu<strong>la</strong>tion<br />

of North American porcupines, Parc National <strong>du</strong> Bic, Québec, May 2000-May 2005. We used data on 159 indivi<strong>du</strong>als. Mo<strong>de</strong>l in bold<br />

represents the selected mo<strong>de</strong>!. We also performed tests of <strong>la</strong>gged effects of snowfa ll and spring temperature on <strong>sur</strong>viva! but don't<br />

show resu!ts here since no mo<strong>de</strong>l was b<strong>et</strong>ter than the se!ected mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />

Biological meaning Notati onî Deviance np* t.AICc* *<br />

Direct effect of precipitations + age effect,Fom Table 3.5<br />

U W<br />

a Precipitations + a<br />

797.442 8 0.000<br />

Lagged effect of precipitations (y-I ) + age effect ua W Precipi ta tions (y_l) + a 809.678 8 12.236<br />

Lagged effect of precipitations (y-2) + age effect U a W Precipitations (y-2) + a<br />

805 .747 8 8.305<br />

îU, summer; W, winter; y, year; a, age mo<strong>de</strong>lled as two age c<strong>la</strong>sses (j uven il es, 2: 1-yr-old); *np, number of estimated param<strong>et</strong>ers; ** t.AICc,<br />

di fference in AICc with the selected mo<strong>de</strong>l

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