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Synthesis of Safety for Traffic Operations - Transports Canada

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<strong>Synthesis</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Safety</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Traffic</strong> <strong>Operations</strong> March 2003<br />

Advance Warning Flashers<br />

Gibby et al (1992)<br />

Gibby et al (1992) undertook research into the characteristics <strong>of</strong> approaches to highspeed,<br />

isolated, signalized intersections at 40 locations in Cali<strong>for</strong>nia. This analysis<br />

included the evaluation <strong>of</strong> advance warning signs and flashers to these signalized<br />

intersections. Ten years <strong>of</strong> crash data were used, sites were representative <strong>of</strong> the most<br />

and least safe intersections <strong>of</strong> this type in the Cali<strong>for</strong>nia state highway system. The<br />

results <strong>of</strong> the Gibby et al analysis are applicable to locations that are rural, have at least<br />

one approach with a posted speed limit <strong>of</strong> 50 mph or greater, and at least one approach is<br />

a state highway.<br />

The advance warning flasher (AWF) was classified as an advance warning sign (AWS)<br />

such as a “signal ahead” sign that is supplemented by at least one 300 mm flashing amber<br />

beacon. The difference in mean crash rates at the different locations were analysed, and<br />

are shown in Table 3.39.<br />

TABLE 3.39: Crash Rates <strong>for</strong> AWS and AWF in Cali<strong>for</strong>nia<br />

Treatment<br />

Mean<br />

Number <strong>of</strong><br />

Standard<br />

Approach<br />

Approaches<br />

Deviation<br />

Crash Rate<br />

None 14 0.84 0.48<br />

AWS 85 2.83 3.10<br />

AWF 77 1.13 1.14<br />

Both AWS + AWF 14 1.57 1.17<br />

The results <strong>of</strong> the analysis indicate that the installation <strong>of</strong> AWSs and AWFs at isolated,<br />

high-speed signalized intersections increase crash rates. This conclusion seems to be<br />

counterintuitive and is likely untrustworthy because <strong>of</strong> the following two (main)<br />

shortcomings in the study design:<br />

• The study uses a cross-section rather than a be<strong>for</strong>e-after study design to examine<br />

the differences in mean crash rates. This type <strong>of</strong> analysis is not as reliable in<br />

controlling <strong>for</strong> confounding influences between intersections. It is likely that<br />

other differences between the study intersections have played some role in<br />

shaping the different crash rates.<br />

• The allocation <strong>of</strong> sites to the different treatment groups was likely based on safety<br />

per<strong>for</strong>mance, and has there<strong>for</strong>e tainted the analysis. Those sites that have not<br />

been treated are likely those with the best safety per<strong>for</strong>mance.<br />

Page 45

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