The international economics of resources and resource ... - Index of

Multi-agent modeling of economic innovation dynamics and its implications 329
In Figs. 5 and 6 the results of an exemplary run of the simulation model are shown.
Here we assume an optimistic scenario leading to an increase of total production by
300% in 120 time steps (30 years) (Fig. 5, left part). In the right part of Fig. 5 the
amounts for intermediary and final production as well as primary inputs of the input/
out-table (cf. Fig. 4) are represented by columns. What is clearly understandable in
this example is that in t=120 only about one third of total production is net production
(value added). That the modes of actions (and their frequencies) at the agent level play
an essential role for the growth of total production can be verified by looking at Fig. 6.
In terms of the frequencies of the modes of action the system passes through a
transition phase (up to about t=50) after which a pattern of moderate irregular
fluctuations around an average level occur for all modes of action (routine, imitation
and innovation). It is only in this second phase in which the share of firms pursuing
only routines and the share of firms additionally creating novelties follows a cyclical
pattern that the growth of total production increases significantly (cf. Fig. 5, left
part).
To sum up, the link between novelty creation and growth is not trivial: First
of all the innovation activity itself has to be triggered and has to be successful.
If so, it has a primary growth effect in terms of an increased value added (final
demand) in the same sector. Furthermore, the secondary effect constituted by
substitution and devaluation of old products has to be included. Finally the
inter-sectoral (tertiary) effects of the primary and secondary effect have to be
considered for getting a comprehensive picture of the dynamics in the whole
economy.
5 Driving forces and dynamics of emission impacts
The multi-level model developed in section 3 and 4 is now enhanced by including
emissions. Because the main purpose here is to demonstrate the applicability of such
an approach for analyzing the dynamics of environmental impacts only one
exemplary emission (e.g. CO 2) is assumed. This emission is related to the level of
gross production
net production
t
40
30
20
10
0
Sector0
Sector1
final dem.
Sector3
Sector2
Sector2
Sector1
Sector3
prim.input
Sector0
Fig. 5 Gross production over time (left) and sectoral production (input/output-table) in t=120 (right)