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Int Econ Econ Policy (2010) 7:343–356 DOI 10.1007/s10368-010-0160-1 ORIGINAL PAPER How to increase global resource productivity? Findings from modelling in the petrE project Christian Lutz Published online: 25 June 2010 # Springer-Verlag 2010 Abstract The analysis in the chapter is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model that contains 50 countries and two regions and their bilateral trade relations, energy balances, material, macro-economic and structural data. The model is applied in the petrE project to analyze the impacts of major environmental tax reforms (ETR) and the EU ETS to reach the EU GHG reduction targets until 2020. The ETR includes a carbon tax for all non-ETS sectors and a material tax. Scenarios look at unilateral EU action and at international cooperation by all OECD countries and the major emerging economies. The chapter presents some of the modelling results. A major ETR in Europe could significantly reduce environmental pressures in Europe while creating additional jobs. Small negative GDP impacts are within the range of results of other studies. The results clearly demonstrate that only global action with substantial carbon prices may lead to an emission path still in line with the 2° target. But even if a far-reaching global climate agreement is reached later in 2010, global resource extraction will continue to increase without additional international measures. Keywords Global modelling . Environmental tax reform . Global resource productivity JEL Classification C53 . C63 . Q47 . Q52 . Q54 Acknowledgements PetrE has been funded by the Anglo-German Foundation as part of its “Creating sustainable growth in Europe” research initiative. I would also like to thank two anonymous referees for helpful comments. C. Lutz (*) Institute for Economic Structures Research (GWS), Heinrichstr. 30, 49080 Osnabrueck, Germany e-mail: lutz@gws-os.com
344 C. Lutz 1 Introduction This chapter presents results of the petrE (“Resource productivity, environmental tax reform and sustainable growth in Europe”) project that has been finished in June 2009 (Ekins and Speck 2010). PetrE is a three-year project, one of four funded by the Anglo- German Foundation as part of its “Creating sustainable growth in Europe” research initiative. The analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model that contains 50 countries and two regions and their bilateral trade relations, energy balances, macro-economic and structural data. The GINFORS model integrates material input models in nine aggregated material categories, which are based on a global material extraction dataset (www.materialflows.net). GINFORS is closed on the global level. In the petrE project, the GINFORS model is applied to analyze the impacts of major environmental tax reforms (ETR) and the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to reach the EU GHG reduction targets until 2020. The ETR includes a carbon tax for all non-ETS sectors and a material tax. Scenarios look at unilateral EU action and at international cooperation by all OECD countries and the major emerging economies. While the baseline scenario illustrates developments in the absence of policy measures, scenario S1H assumes certain policy measures in the EU (a tightened EU ETS cap, the introduction of a carbon tax on the non-ETS sector, and introduction of materials taxes), and scenario S3H also includes measures in the major OECD countries as well as a carbon tax in the five major emerging economies of China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico (G5). The chapter builds on two detailed working papers, which present the results on the EU and national level (Lutz and Meyer 2009a) and on the global level (Giljum et al. 2010). The concept of ETR is discussed in Ekins and Speck (2010). Section 2 shortly presents the GINFORS model. The model is documented in Meyer et al. (2007), Meyer and Lutz (2007) and Lutz et al. (2010). Six scenarios that are outlined in Section 3 have been implemented in the course of the petrE project. The baseline is adjusted to the latest EU energy forecast (DG TREN 2008) and on the global level to the IEA (2008) world energy outlook. Other scenarios build on the GHG emission reduction targets of the EU until 2020. Section 5 contains an overview of the baseline development. In Section 6 simulation results are discussed: A major ETR in Europe could significantly reduce environmental pressures in Europe while creating additional jobs. Small negative GDP impacts are within the range of results of other studies. The results clearly demonstrate that only global action will be able to reach the 2° target. But even if a far-reaching global climate agreement is reached in 2010, global resource extraction will continue to increase without additional international measures. The necessary debate about limits of resource extraction on a global level will raise similar questions about international competitiveness and leakage, GDP effects and the need of international action as the climate change debate. 2 The GINFORS model The simulation instrument-the global model GINFORS (Global INterindustry FORecasting System)-describes the economic development, energy demand, CO 2
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