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200 L. Bretschger Fig. 8 Impact of higher energy efficency Increasing capital investments by governmental policy possibly involves two further problems. First, it has no impact on long-run income, provided that energy is scarce (regime 2). Second, if we are in regime 1, increasing capital investments raise energy demand thereby raising exposure to risk of future energy supply shortages. Increasing energy efficiency by governmental policy supports the development of long-run income in regime 2. At the same time, it decreases long-run energy demand and reduces the risk in the case of energy shortages as with low energy input, the term B(t) · E(t) is dominated by efficiency B(t). When energy is abundant (regime 1), increasing energy efficiency by governmental policy reduces energy use but does not foster income and growth. 6 Conclusions The model used in this paper provides results for sustainability policies in the long and medium run. For the long run, substitution between inputs and, above all, between sectors is necessary to move the economy towards higher resource efficiency and to enable ongoing growth. Medium-run policies may aim at escaping an economic downturn with several measures summarized under the title “Green New Deal”. We conclude that, in principle, it is a valid point to direct government expenditure toward a greening of the economy, if these expenditures are carried out anyway. But it has to be noted that mediumrun recovery is not the primary target of sustainability policies. For example, with regard to future living standards and risk exposure, sustainability calls for policies increasing energy efficiency rather than raising capital investments. Assuming that sustainability policies create new trust brings the goals of recovery and sustainability in line, as claimed by the Green New Deal. But is it realistic? Further problems of large green programmes with huge government spending are the lack of mature energy projects (causing low efficiency) and possibly high administrative costs. In addition, these policies might carry a green label but in fact only help existing industries to survive (like the German “scrap premium”). Finally, taxes and permit markets can have similar or better effects, without causing a high burden for public budgets.
Sustainability economics, resource efficiency, and the Green New Deal 201 Except the explanations on the terms of trade effect we did not treat the international dimension in this paper. Of course, the state of the environment and economic growth are both largely influenced by the economic relations between economies and world regions. Thus the combination of dynamics, trade and environment is a promising field for further economic research. Looking at the existing literature indicates that more interesting results can be expected in the future. Many results of growth theory are only valid for closed economies; by opening the economies, one should try to confirm, reject or refine these model outcomes. Appendix Calculation of B B j(t) = κ · K j(t) − κ · K j (t) 2 / ¯K j (t) + 1 ¯B j : ∂ B j(t) = 0 ∂ K j(t) ⇔ κ = 2 · κ · K j (t) / ¯K j (t) ⇔ ¯K j (t) = 2 · K j (t) ⇔ K j (t) = ¯K j (t) /2 Inserting in the logistic function gives ¯B j(t) = κ · ¯K j (t) /2 � 1 − ¯K j (t) /2 ¯K j (t) � + 1 = κ · ¯K j (t) /2 · 1/2 + 1 = κ · ¯K j (t) /4 + 1 so that ¯K j (t) = 4( ¯B j − 1)/κ if K j(t) = 0 and ¯K j (t) −K K ¯ ¯ j(t) >0 as used in the main text. ¯ References j(t) = 4( ¯B j − 1)/κ if Arrow KJ (1962) The economic implications of learning by doing. Rev Econ Stud 29:155–173 Barbier EB (1999) Endogenous growth and natural resource scarcity. Environ Resour Econ 14(1):51–74 Barbier EB (2009) A global Green New Deal. Report prepared for the Green Economy Initiative and the Division of Technology, Industry and Economics of the UN Environment Programme Bovenberg AL, Smulders S (1995) Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model. J Public Econ 57:369–391 Bretschger L (1998) How to substitute in order to sustain: knowledge driven growth under environmental restrictions. Environ Dev Econ 3:425–442 Bretschger L (1999) Growth theory and sustainable development. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham UK Bretschger L (2009) Energy prices, growth, and the channels in between: theory and evidence. CER-ETH Economics Working Paper Series 06/47, ETH Zurich
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