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How to increase global resource productivity? 347 & all other EU ETS permits are 50% auctioned in 2013 increasing to 100% in 2020, & material taxes are introduced at 5% of total price in 2010 increasing to 15% by 2020, applying simple assumptions. In scenarios S1L, S1H and S3H environmental tax revenues are recycled through reductions in income tax rates and social security contributions in each of the member states, such that there is no direct change in tax revenues. In scenario S2H 10% of the environmental tax revenues are recycled through spending on eco-innovation measures, the remaining 90% is recycled through the same measures as in the other scenarios. The eco-innovation spending is split across power generation and housing according to tax revenues from the corporate and household sector. In GINFORS the share of renewables in electricity production is increased due to the additional investment. The rest of additional investment goes to household energy efficiency spending. Investment needed for a certain amount of renewables increase or efficiency improvement is based on German and Austrian experience (Lehr et al. 2008, 2009; Grossmann et al. 2008; Lutz and Meyer 2008). This assumption is quite conservative as parameters for other countries can be assumed to be more positive. Less money will be needed for renewables installation or energy efficiency gains due to technical progress than in first mover countries. In scenarios S1L and S1H the 20% GHG target translates into a 15% reduction of energy-related carbon emissions against 1990 as other emissions such as methane and nitrous oxide already have been reduced above average. The target is reached by a tightened EU ETS cap and the introduction of a carbon tax on the non-ETS sector. The tax rate applied is equal to the carbon price in the EU ETS that will deliver 20% reduction in GHG by 2020. The carbon tax is levied on energy outputs, i.e. the final use of energy, and will be based on the carbon content of each fuel. Carbon prices are assumed to be fully passed on to consumers. All carbon taxes will be in addition to any existing unilateral carbon taxes and excise duties. The carbon reductions in the different EU Member States (MS) will be those that the same carbon tax increase across the EU produces. One hundred percent of the revenues, including EU ETS auctioning revenues, carbon tax revenues and material tax revenues will be recycled. The proportion of tax raised by industry will be recycled into a reduction in employers’ social security contributions, which will in turn reduce the cost of labour. Recycling will be additional to the existing ETRs in some member states. Revenues raised from households will be recycled through standard rate income tax reductions. Traditional energy tax revenues will be lower compared to the respective baseline, as the tax base (energy consumption) is reduced. So revenue-neutrality does not mean budgetneutrality of an ETR. Scenario S3H is used to investigate the effect that international cooperation would have on competitiveness and resources. In this scenario it is assumed that the rest of the world takes equivalent action towards reducing carbon emissions. International action is expected to reduce the loss of competitiveness the EU would face if it embarked on unilateral action. However, in this scenario, the tax levied is greater and
348 C. Lutz is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in 2020, rather than 20% in the preceding scenarios. Scenario S3H is leaned on scenario S1H but with higher targets in line with the EU’s stated policy objective of a 30% GHG reduction against 1990 until 2020. In GINFORS ETS and ETR is modelled in the major OECD countries. CO2 prices in these countries are equal to EU prices. Emerging economies will introduce a CO2 tax recycled via income tax reductions. CO 2 tax rates will be 25% of EU (OECD) prices in 2020. Restricted participation of emerging economies takes into account common but differentiated responsibility (lower historic burden, lower GDP per capita). The relation of 25% is based on calculations in a post-Kyoto project for the German Ministry of Economy in 2007 (Lutz and Meyer 2009b). The 30% reduction will be in European emissions, without trying to take account of JI/CDM transactions that could be on top of the extra EU carbon reduction. 4 Baseline BL The reference scenario (baseline) BL bases population development, economic growth, energy consumption and emission development on national and international projections, in particular on the reference scenario of the PRIMES model (DG TREN 2008) and of the reference scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2008 published by the IEA (2008). According to this, the world population will increase to above 8 billion by 2030. The world economy will grow considerably driven by the economic development in the developing countries. Mitigation efforts are not increased world wide. The current economic crisis is not taken into account. If EU (and global) GDP are substantially lower in 2020 than expected in 2008, the carbon price and related economic impacts to reach fixed targets will also be lower. Global energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 50% until 2030 compared to 2005 without additional mitigation measures. Compared to the base year of the Kyoto Protocol, 1990, they almost double. The EU-27 will still produce about 10% of global emissions in 2030 (15% in 2004). The main increase of global emissions can be ascribed to developing and emerging countries-particularly to China, which already is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter-for which there are no emission reduction targets set in the Kyoto Protocol. But emissions will also increase substantially in the USA and Russia, and the rest of the world, particularly in the OPEC countries. Figure 2 clearly indicates that EU-27 is only a minor player in global emissions. Even if EU-27 and all developed countries together cut their emissions to zero in 2020, the 2° target cannot be reached without additional reductions in other parts of the world (see also IEA 2008, 2009). The shift in global material extraction and production patterns is underpinned by Fig. 3, which shows that shares of EU-25 and other OECD countries will decrease sharply after 2005 to less than 30% in 2030. At the same time the emerging BRICS countries and especially the rest of the world will raise their share in global extraction. Overall extractionwillstronglyincreaseinthenext decades (Fig. 4).
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Int Econ Econ Policy (2010) 7:147-1
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The international economics of reso
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154 P.J.J. Welfens et al. Keywords
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228 R. Bleischwitz economics and po
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244 R. Bleischwitz Ericsson M (2009
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246 R. Walz 1 Introduction Competen
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248 R. Walz Based on the pollution
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250 R. Walz procedures. However, ev
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252 R. Walz In addition to exports,
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