The international economics of resources and resource ... - Index of

348 C. Lutz
is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in 2020, rather than 20% in
the preceding scenarios.
Scenario S3H is leaned on scenario S1H but with higher targets in line with the
EU’s stated policy objective of a 30% GHG reduction against 1990 until 2020. In
GINFORS ETS and ETR is modelled in the major OECD countries. CO2 prices in
these countries are equal to EU prices. Emerging economies will introduce a CO2 tax
recycled via income tax reductions. CO 2 tax rates will be 25% of EU (OECD) prices
in 2020. Restricted participation of emerging economies takes into account common
but differentiated responsibility (lower historic burden, lower GDP per capita). The
relation of 25% is based on calculations in a post-Kyoto project for the German
Ministry of Economy in 2007 (Lutz and Meyer 2009b). The 30% reduction will be
in European emissions, without trying to take account of JI/CDM transactions that
could be on top of the extra EU carbon reduction.
4 Baseline BL
The reference scenario (baseline) BL bases population development, economic
growth, energy consumption and emission development on national and international
projections, in particular on the reference scenario of the PRIMES model (DG
TREN 2008) and of the reference scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2008
published by the IEA (2008). According to this, the world population will increase
to above 8 billion by 2030. The world economy will grow considerably driven by
the economic development in the developing countries. Mitigation efforts are not
increased world wide.
The current economic crisis is not taken into account. If EU (and global) GDP are
substantially lower in 2020 than expected in 2008, the carbon price and related
economic impacts to reach fixed targets will also be lower.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 50% until 2030 compared to
2005 without additional mitigation measures. Compared to the base year of the
Kyoto Protocol, 1990, they almost double. The EU-27 will still produce about 10%
of global emissions in 2030 (15% in 2004). The main increase of global emissions
can be ascribed to developing and emerging countries-particularly to China, which
already is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter-for which there are no emission
reduction targets set in the Kyoto Protocol. But emissions will also increase
substantially in the USA and Russia, and the rest of the world, particularly in the
OPEC countries.
Figure 2 clearly indicates that EU-27 is only a minor player in global emissions.
Even if EU-27 and all developed countries together cut their emissions to zero in
2020, the 2° target cannot be reached without additional reductions in other parts of
the world (see also IEA 2008, 2009).
The shift in global material extraction and production patterns is underpinned
by Fig. 3, which shows that shares of EU-25 and other OECD countries will
decrease sharply after 2005 to less than 30% in 2030. At the same time the
emerging BRICS countries and especially the rest of the world will raise their
share in global extraction. Overall extractionwillstronglyincreaseinthenext
decades (Fig. 4).