The international economics of resources and resource ... - Index of

How to increase global resource productivity? 349
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35,000
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5 Overview of modelling results
This chapter summarizes detailed results for the EU level presented in Lutz and
Meyer (2009a) for the EU part and in Giljum et al. (2010) for the global
implications. The main results of the simulations are highlighted in Table 1. High
energy price scenarios are in the centre of the discussion. They are close to medium
and long-term price expectations of the IEA (2008). In the baseline scenario BH with
high energy prices, EU-27 carbon emissions will be 7.2% below 1990 level in 2020.
EU-15 has committed in the Kyoto protocol to reduce its GHG emissions 8% below
1990 levels in the period 2008–2012. As emissions in the new member states are
substantially below their 1990 levels today, EU-27 will keep its emissions more or
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
Rest of World
G5
other developed countries
EU-27
1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Fig. 2 Energy-related CO2 emissions in Mt CO2
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
EU-25 Rest of OECD BRICS RoW
Fig. 3 Global used material extraction for country groups