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338 F. Beckenbach, R. Briegel cost Fig. 14 Costs of innovation in the incremental dynamic abatement regime innovation dynamics is influencing the sectoral amount of emissions but also the intersectoral dynamics modifying the emission related ranking of the sectors as regards emission coefficients. This clear-cut picture of needing a radical abatement regime for innovating agents to comply with given social emission targets is modified if the implicit assumption so far that the abatement comes as a free joint product of innovation is given up. Picking up the case of incremental dynamic abatement again it is now additionally assumed that the costs of abatement are increasing linearly with the amount of reduced emissions (starting from the default level of 0.125 there is an increase of 0.005 in every regulation period; cf. Fig. 14). These costs are considered as a part of the innovation costs. What is obvious from Fig. 15 is firstly, that the frequency of innovations is reduced 24 and therefore the growth of final demand is damped (cf. Fig. 15, upper left part). Secondly, the spreading of the innovation frequencies between sectors in t>40 is more distinct than in the case without cost increase (cf. Fig. 11, right upper part in comparison to Fig. 15, right upper part). Thirdly, the higher volatility of the behavioral innovation force (cf. above) opens up the possibility for synchronous jumps in innovation activities in different sectors (as it is the case in t>70) leading to a temporary abrupt reduction of emissions before the growth effect is dominating again (cf. Fig. 15, lower part). Here again the innovation dilemma mentioned above becomes obvious: it is only if the innovation dynamics is effectively damped by cost effects that the occurrence of the emission increasing rebound effect can be avoided. The simulation runs suggest that only a radical abatement regime with moderate additional costs is appropriate to meet emission targets as proposed in the debate on climate change. Looking at the reality of technological development on one side and of the slow dynamics of environmental policy on the other side one has to be skeptical about the technological as well as political feasibility of such a radical regime. In both cases the problem of path-dependency will be an important issue. Hence, a more realistic alternative seems to be either to face significant abatement costs (in economic as well as political terms) bearing the risk of letting the innovation process stagnate or to confine oneself to an incremental dynamic abatement regime being in danger of not meeting required emission targets. What is 24 The reason fort hat is that the increase of innovation costs is reducing the relative force toward innovation on the agent level (cf. above) Eq. 7. time
Multi-agent modeling of economic innovation dynamics and its implications 339 Fig. 15 Growth dynamics with incremental abatement regime and increasing abatement costs obvious here is a double regulation dilemma: Implementing innovation and generating growth are features of a self-organized economic process which cannot be predicted and influenced precisely; but if regulation does not prescribe ambitious emission reduction targets, innovation will imply growth which could overcompensate emission reductions associated with the single innovation project. Whatever the regulatory options are, the multi-agent model indicates that only imposing emission targets is not sufficient. Rather it is necessary to figure out abatement paths by taking into account the agents, the context they are operating in, and the time scale for regulations. Furthermore: because there are different paths for fulfilling (or missing) a target it is necessary to select a path, to update the achievements, and—if necessary—to adapt the path features to the new experience. In this sense policy should be conceptualized as a part of a broader complex adaptive system. 7 Conclusions Emissions are coupled to innovation and growth in a complicated manner. The direction of innovation, the velocity of diffusion and the dependencies between sectors have been shown as the main sources for this complication. For shedding light on these relations the economy was conceptualized a ‘complex adaptive system’ having diffusion, growth and emissions as ‘emergent properties’. To distinguish different but related levels of activities and especially to include an
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Int Econ Econ Policy (2010) 7:147-1
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154 P.J.J. Welfens et al. Keywords
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The U.S. proposed carbon tariffs, W
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228 R. Bleischwitz economics and po
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230 R. Bleischwitz Fig. 1 Global re
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232 R. Bleischwitz demand is estima
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234 R. Bleischwitz the ‘socio-ind
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240 R. Bleischwitz The vast majorit
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244 R. Bleischwitz Ericsson M (2009
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246 R. Walz 1 Introduction Competen
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248 R. Walz Based on the pollution
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250 R. Walz procedures. However, ev
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252 R. Walz In addition to exports,
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254 R. Walz 4 Technological capabil
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256 R. Walz 4.2 Analysis of patents
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258 R. Walz recycling (e.g. shiftab
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260 R. Walz Fig. 10 Specialization
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