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How to increase global resource productivity? 355 is the only instrument to reach the EU 2020 GHG targets. Renewables and efficiency policies will also contribute to carbon reduction and have to be taken into account, when comparing the results (especially the high carbon prices) to other studies. There are different renewables and efficiency policies that could further improve the economic impacts of reaching the climate and energy targets. The results clearly indicate to intensify the discussion on market-based instruments, but in the end a policy mix will be needed to reach the EU GHG targets. Global material extraction and energy-related CO 2 emissions continue to grow in all three scenarios analysed in GINFORS. This trend is largely led by the group of emerging economies. The worldwide effects of the unilateral ETR scenario (S1H) on the growth trend of used material extraction and energy-related CO2 emissions are negligible. For both impacts, the cooperation scenario (S3H) is more effective. It would decrease the global amount of materials extracted by 5.3% and the amount of CO2 emissions by 15.6% compared to the baseline scenario in 2020. Two main policy conclusions can be drawn from this investigation. First, combating climate change can only be successful through global cooperation and global climate treaties. Carbon prices may be significantly higher than in the current European debate or additional non-price measures have to be used. Secondly, since overall resource use is continuing to increase substantially, targets on CO2 emissions only are not sufficient in order to lessen the environmental impacts of economic activities. The just beginning debate about limits of resource extraction will raise similar questions about international competitiveness and leakage, GDP effects and the need of international action as the climate change debate. This calls for new research efforts especially on the global scale. Even though more and more internationally comparable data becomes available, the field clearly lacks fundamental data and research structures, that had been established for energy in the 1970s as a response two the first oil price crisis. New research in the field of externalities such as the EU FP 6 EXIOPOL project will deliver additional empirical data, that will further improve the analysis to more explicitly take capacity constraints into account. Combined with environmentally extended multi-regional input-output models such as GRAM (Giljum et al. 2008b), results can substantially improve the understanding of consumer and producer responsibility in the light of upcoming international agreements. References Almon C (1991) The INFORUM approach to interindustry modelling. Econ Syst Res 3:1–7 Barker T, Junankar S, Pollitt H, Summerton P (2007a) Carbon leakage from unilateral environmental tax reforms in Europe, 1995–2005. Energy Policy 35:6281–6292. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.06.021 Barker T, Meyer B, Pollitt H, Lutz C (2007b) Modelling environmental tax reform in Germany and the United Kingdom with E3ME and GINFORS, Petre Working Paper, Cambridge and Osnabrueck. http://www.petre.org.uk/papers.htm DG TREN (2008) European energy and transport. Trends to 2030-Update 2007. Luxembourg Ekins P, Speck S (2010) Environmental tax reform (ETR), resolving the conflict between economic growth and the environment. Oxford University Press, Oxford EU-Commission (2008) Joint impact assessment on the package of implementation measures for the EU’s objectives on climate change and renewable energy for 2020. COM (2008) 16, 17 und 18, Brussels
356 C. Lutz Giljum S, Behrens A, Hinterberger F, Lutz C, Meyer B (2008a) Modelling scenarios towards a sustainable use of natural resources in Europe. Env Sci Policy 11:204–216. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2007.07.005 Giljum S, Lutz C, Jungnitz A, Bruckner M, Hinterberger M (2008b) Global dimensions of European natural resource use. First results from the global resource accounting model (GRAM). SERI Working Paper 7, Vienna Giljum S, Lutz C, Polzin C (2010) Global dimensions of ETR in Europe. petrE Working Paper & SERI Working Paper 10, Vienna Grossmann A, Lehr U, Lutz C, Wolter MI (2008) Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Umsetzung der EU Ziele im Bereich Erneuerbare Energien und Gebäudeeffizienz in Österreich bis 2020. Studie im Auftrag des Lebensministeriums, Wien 05/08 International Energy Agency [IEA] (2008) World energy outlook 2008. Paris International Energy Agency [IEA] (2009) World energy outlook 2009. Paris IPCC (2008) Climate change 2007-mitigation of climate change. Working Group III contribution to the fourth assessment Report of the IPCC, Intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge Economic Press Lehr U, Nitsch J, Krazat M, Lutz C, Edler D (2008) Renewable energy and employment in Germany. Energy Policy 36:108–117. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.09.004 Lehr U, Wolter MI, Grossmann A (2009) Economic impacts of RES obligations in Austria-an application of the macro-econometric Model e3.at. GWS Discussion Paper 2009/1, Osnabrueck Lutz C, Giljum S (2009) Global resource use in a business as usual world until 2030. Updated results from the GINFORS model. In: Bleischwitz R, Welfens P, Zhang Z (eds.) Sustainable growth and resource productivity-economic and global policy issues. Greenleaf Publishers, Sheffield, pp 30–41 Lutz C, Meyer B (2008) Beschäftigungseffekte des Klimaschutzes in Deutschland. Untersuchungen zu gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen ausgewählter Maßnahmen des Energie-und Klimapakets. Forschungsbericht 205 46 434, Dessau-Roßlau Lutz C, Meyer B (2009a) Scenario results from GINFORS. petrE Working Paper. Osnabrueck Lutz C, Meyer B (2009b) Environmental and economic effects of Post-Kyoto carbon regimes. Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS. Energy Policy 37:1758–1766. doi:10.1016/j. enpol.2009.01.015 Lutz C, Meyer B, Wolter MI (2010) The Global Multisector/Multicountry 3-E Model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO2 emissions. J Sust Dev 10:25–45 Meyer B, Lutz C (2007) The GINFORS Model. Model overview and evaluation. petrE Working Paper, Osnabrueck Meyer B, Lutz C, Schnur P, Zika G (2007) Economic policy simulations with global interdependencies: a sensitivity analysis for Germany. Econ Syst Res 19:37–55 Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U (2009) Modelling results from E3ME. petrE Working Paper, Cambridge Stern NH (2007) The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
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