The international economics of resources and resource ... - Index of

How to increase global resource productivity? 353
90
80
70
60
50
BH
S1H
S3H
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fig. 6 Global used material extraction in billion tonnes, three scenarios
material extraction, especially iron ore, due to large amounts of available resources,
agricultural and forestry products and construction materials.
Figure 7 highlights the GDP impacts of GHG emission reductions in the EU in
relation to high and low energy prices. The impact of high energy prices on GDP
(baseline BH against baseline with low energy prices BL) is about as important as
the impact of GHG emissions reduction in scenario S1L (with low energy prices)
against the respective baseline BL in 2020. In the case of high energy prices, the
impact of GHG emission reduction (Scenario S1H against the baseline BH) is much
lower. The macroeconomic costs of reaching emission reductions strongly depend on
the future level of international energy prices, as the value of saved energy imports is
determined by international energy prices. The positive impact of higher energy
productivity on international competitiveness also depends on energy price levels.
It is remarkable that the 20% GHG target in S1L in the case of low energy prices
and unilateral EU action creates more negative GDP impacts than the 30% GHG
reduction in the case of high energy prices and international cooperation.
In contrast to production, employment increases in all scenarios. Due to the
scenario design the structure of the EU economies is shifted from carbon-and
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
BH
BL
S1L
S1H
2010 2015 2020
Fig. 7 GDP of EU-27 in Bill. US-Dollars (PPPs) in prices of 2005 in different scenarios