Human Development Report 2013 - UNDP

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concerns will make for a complex environmentwith attendant risks, including progress reversals,rising insecurity and greater inequality.Forecasting is difficult in such a complexenvironment because modelling may miss keyvariables, such as technological progress, thatcan dramatically change both production andpersonal possibilities. Nevertheless, modellingscenarios are helpful for illustrating policychoices and their implications.Enhancing equityGreater equity, including between men andwomen and across groups (religious, racial andothers), is not only valuable in itself, but alsoessential for promoting human development.One of the most powerful instruments foradvancing equity and human development iseducation, which builds people’s capacities andexpands their freedom of choice. Educationboosts people’s self-confidence and makes iteasier for them to find better jobs, engage inpublic debate and make demands on governmentfor health care, social security and otherentitlements.Education also has striking benefits forhealth and mortality (see box 4.1 on differencesin education futures in the Republic of Koreaand India). Evidence worldwide establishes thatBOX 4.1Why population prospects will likely differ in the Republic of Korea and IndiaEducational attainment has risen rapidly in the Republic of Korea. In the1950s a large proportion of school-age children received no formal education.Today, young Korean women are among the best educated women inthe world: more than half have completed college. As a consequence, elderlyKoreans of the future will be much better educated than elderly Koreansof today (see figure), and because of the positive correlation between educationand health, they are also likely to be healthier.Assuming that enrolment rates (which are high) remain constant, theproportion of the population younger than age 14 will drop from 16% in 2010to 13% in 2050. There will also be a marked shift in the population’s educationcomposition, with the proportion having a tertiary education projectedto rise from 26% to 47%.For India, the picture looks very different. Before 2000, more than half theadult population had no formal education. Despite the recent expansion in basicschooling and impressive growth in the number of better educated Indians(undoubtedly a key factor in India’s recent economic growth), the proportionof the adult population with no education will decline only slowly. Partly becauseof this lower level of education, particularly among women, India’spopulation is projected to grow rapidly, with India surpassing China as themost populous country. Even under an optimistic fast track scenario, whichassumes education expansion similar to Korea’s, India’s education distributionin 2050 will still be highly unequal, with a sizeable group of uneducated(mostly elderly) adults. The rapid expansion in tertiary education under thisscenario, however, will build a very well educated young adult labour force.Comparative population and education futures in the Republic of Korea and IndiaPopulation (millions)50Republic of Korea, constant enrolment ratiosPopulation (millions)2,000India, fast track scenario40TERTIARYTERTIARY1,500TERTIARY30SECONDARYSECONDARY1,000SECONDARY2010PRIMARYNO EDUCATIONPRIMARY500NO EDUCATIONPRIMARY0197019801990200020102020 20302040 20500197019801990200020102020 20302040 2050Source: Lutz and KC 2013.88 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2013
etter education of parents, especially of mothers,improves child survival. Moreover, workingwomen and more-educated women (who tendto complete their schooling before bearingchildren) are likely to have fewer children. 4Educated women also have healthier childrenwho are more likely to survive (table 4.1), thusreducing the incentive to have a larger family. 5Educated women also have better access to contraceptionand use it more effectively. 6Drawing on Demographic and HealthSurveys and micro-level surveys, research forthis Report reinforces these arguments, findingmother’s education to be more important tochild survival than household income or wealthis. This has profound policy implications, potentiallyshifting emphasis from efforts to boosthousehold income to measures to improve girls’education.This relationship can be illustrated by dataon child mortality (see table 4.1). ManyAfrican countries, most notably Mali andNiger, have a high under-five mortality rate.But in every country, the mortality rate islower among better educated mothers. Insome countries, such as Nigeria, much lowerchild mortality is associated with primaryeducation; in others, such as Liberia andUganda, the decisive difference is associatedwith secondary education.A modelling exercise conducted for thisReport projects the impact of differences ineducation levels on child mortality over 2010–2050 under two scenarios. The “base case”scenario assumes that current trends in educationalattainment at the national level continuewithout substantial new funding commitmentsor policy initiatives. Under this assumption,the proportion of each group of children—categorized by age and gender—advancing tothe next education level remains constant (seeTechnical appendix).The “fast track” scenario assumes muchmore ambitious education policy targets,similar to those achieved in recent decadesby the Republic of Korea, for example, withthe proportion of schoolchildren advancingto the next education level steadily increasingA mother’s educationis more important toher child’s survivalthan is householdincome or wealthTABLE 4.1Under-five mortality rate and total fertility rate by mother’s education levelIn selected countries, most recent year available since 2005Under-five mortality rate(per 1,000 live births)Total fertility rate(births per woman)CountrySurvey yearNo educationPrimarySecondaryor higher Overall No education PrimarySecondaryor higherOverallBangladesh 2007 93 73 52 74 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.7Egypt 2008 44 38 26 33 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0Ethiopia 2005 139 111 54 132 6.1 5.1 2.0 5.4Ghana 2008 103 88 67 85 6.0 4.9 3.0 4.0India 2005/2006 106 78 49 85 3.6 2.6 2.1 2.7Indonesia 2007 94 60 38 51 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.6Liberia 2009 164 162 131 158 7.1 6.2 3.9 5.9Mali 2006 223 176 102 215 7.0 6.3 3.8 6.6Niger 2006 222 209 92 218 7.2 7.0 4.8 7.0Nigeria 2008 210 159 107 171 7.3 6.5 4.2 5.7Rwanda 2007/2008 174 127 43 135 6.1 5.7 3.8 5.5Uganda 2006 164 145 91 144 7.7 7.2 4.4 6.7Zambia 2007 144 146 105 137 8.2 7.1 3.9 6.2Note: Data refer to the period 10 years before the survey year.Source: Lutz and KC 2013.Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 89
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WNSEHuman DevelopmentReport 2013The
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Human Development Report 2013The Ri
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Human Development Report 2013 TeamD
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Heather Simpson, Ben Slay, Mounir T
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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OverviewOne of the most heartening
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and sustainability are fully incorp
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Without investment in people, retur
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opportunity to reap the full benefi
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Woods institutions, the United Nati
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IntroductionWhen developed economie
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem ofmankind
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BOX 1.1Fairness, macroeconomics and
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BOX 1.3Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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FIGURE 1.1Income per capita is risi
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BOX 1.4Subjective indicators of wel
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FIGURE 1.4There is notable variatio
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FIGURE 1.6Most regions show declini
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Progress in humandevelopment achiev
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BOX 1.7Social competencies: human d
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 1.3Inequality and satisfactio
Page 52 and 53: Not all countries havethe precondit
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Page 56 and 57: BOX 2.1The South’s integration wi
Page 58 and 59: FIGURE 2.1As a share of world merch
Page 60 and 61: BOX 2.2Acquisitions by the South of
Page 62 and 63: FIGURE 2.3Between 2000 and 2010, In
Page 64 and 65: FIGURE 2.4Export earnings per capit
Page 66 and 67: BOX 2.6Final assembly is about more
Page 68 and 69: Instead of having a centreof indust
Page 70 and 71: FIGURE 2.6Emerging market economies
Page 72 and 73: Developing countriestrade more amon
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Page 76 and 77: TABLE 3.1Selected developing countr
Page 78 and 79: A common featureof countries thatha
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Page 82 and 83: BOX 3.5Eastern Europe and Central A
Page 84 and 85: States have to beconscious that the
Page 86 and 87: As countries develop,they tend to d
Page 88 and 89: Having weathered theAsian financial
Page 90 and 91: Providing publicservices that contr
Page 92 and 93: Advancing health requiresmore than
Page 94 and 95: Universal public healthand educatio
Page 96 and 97: • China. The Minimum Livelihood G
Page 98 and 99: “Each generation will reap whatth
Page 102 and 103: A greater emphasison education cans
Page 104 and 105: FIGURE 4.1Under the fast track scen
Page 106 and 107: Around the worldpeople are calling
Page 108 and 109: FIGURE 4.4Different environmental s
Page 110 and 111: FIGURE 4.5Education policies can al
Page 112 and 113: BOX 4.2China and Ghana: who benefit
Page 114 and 115: FIGURE 4.8countries thus converge t
Page 116 and 117: “Let us join hands to try tocreat
Page 118 and 119: Areas of globalinternational concer
Page 120 and 121: Addressing climatechange requires t
Page 122 and 123: International governanceis increasi
Page 124 and 125: BOX 5.2Jo Leinen, Member of the Eur
Page 126 and 127: facilitates reserve investments and
Page 128 and 129: Responsible sovereigntytakes the lo
Page 130 and 131: FIGURE 5.1Under the accelerated pro
Page 132 and 133: Good policymakingrequires greater f
Page 134 and 135: A fair and less unequalworld requir
Page 137 and 138: NotesOverview1 Atsmon and others 20
Page 139 and 140: 25 Blinder 2006.26 UNIDO 2009.27 UN
Page 141 and 142: which is 61.7 deaths per 1,000 live
Page 143 and 144: ReferencesAbdurazakov, A., A. Minsa
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Page 147 and 148: Kamau, P., D. McCormick, and N. Pin
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Statistical acknowledgementsThe Rep
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Key to HDI countries and ranks, 201
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Statistical referencesADB (Asian De
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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