Human Development Report 2013 - UNDP

exception is Ghana, where it is expected to take50 years or more.The rate of population ageing matters becauseif developing countries are still poor afterthe demographic transition, they will struggleto meet the needs of an older population. Manydeveloping countries have only a brief windowof opportunity to reap the full benefits of thedemographic dividend of a larger working-agepopulation. 49The need for ambitious policiesTo accelerate and sustain development progress,countries need to adopt ambitious policiesthat expand women’s education and that havecross-cutting benefits for human development.Timing is critical. Countries that act promptlyto take advantage of the demographic dividendand avoid further environmental damage canreap substantial gains. Countries that do notcould face high costs that would be compoundedover time.The importance of bold, prompt policy actioncan be demonstrated through two morescenarios that show the impact of differentpolicy measures on projected HDI and itscomponents in 2050. The base case scenarioassumes continuity with historical trends andpolicies in recent decades. The accelerated progressscenario sets some of the choices and targetsalong 12 policy dimensions for aggressivebut reasonable interventions to reduce poverty,expand infrastructure and improve governance.Examples of ambitious targets are a doubling oflending by international financial institutionsover 10 years, a 50% increase in migration over20 years, 50 a 20% increase in health spendingover 10 years, a 20% expansion in infrastructureover 30 years and a 20% improvement ingovernance over 10 years.The projections of the base case scenario arefairly optimistic in that they carry forward themomentum of advances over recent decades,including dramatic improvements in humandevelopment. Countries do much better underthe accelerated progress scenario, with progressmost rapid in low HDI countries (figure 4.7).Aggregate HDI rises 52% in Sub-SaharanAfrica (from 0.402 to 0.612) and 36% inSouth Asia (from 0.527 to 0.714). Low HDIFIGURE 4.6Populations are ageing more rapidly in developingcountriesBangladesh 2030–2050Brazil 2010–2035Chile 2000–2025China 2000–2030Ghana 2050–2100+India 2025–2055Indonesia 2025–2040Thailand 2005–2025Turkey 2020–20400 10 20 30 40 50Years until share of populationages 65 and older reaches 14%Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013). See Technicalappendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.FIGURE 4.7Human development prospects for 2050 aregreater under the accelerated progress scenario,especially for low HDI countriesVery high HDIHigh HDIMedium HDILow HDIWorld0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9Base case1.0Projected HDI in 2050Accelerated progressNote: See Technical appendix for a definition of the base case and acceleratedprogress scenarios.Source: HDRO calculations based on Pardee Center for International Futures(2013).Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 101