Human Development Report 2013 - UNDP

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FIGURE 4.5Education policies can alter dependency ratiosLow HDIMedium HDIDependency ratioDependency ratio0.950.950.850.850.750.750.65Base case0.650.55Fasttrack0.55Base caseFasttrack0.45197019902010203020500.4519701990201020302050High HDIVery high HDIDependency ratioDependency ratio0.950.950.850.750.850.75Base caseFasttrack0.650.55Base caseFasttrack0.650.550.45197019902010203020500.4519701990201020302050Note: See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013).(8.7 percentage points), countries where even amore ambitious education policy would haveonly a limited impact on dependency ratiosbecause education levels are already high.Countries can respond to a declining labourforce in various ways. They can reduce unemployment,promote labour productivity andfoster greater labour force participation, particularlyamong women and older workers. Theycan also outsource work to offshore productionand attract international migrants. 42Without proper policy measures, demographicdynamics can increase inequality inthe short run, given that differences in thespeed of the demographic transition acrosshouseholds give richer households an initialadvantage. Declining fertility rates and shiftsin age structures can affect economic growth. 43Reinforcing the cross-country analysis conductedfor this Report, a recent study finds thatyouth dependency ratios tend to be higher forpoor households and lower for wealthier ones,especially in Latin America and Sub-SaharanAfrica, and that differences in youth dependencyratios between rich and poor dissipateover time. 44 During demographic transitions,98 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2013
TABLE 4.4Trends in dependency ratios, selected countries, 1970–2050Country 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050Bangladesh 0.929 0.946 0.859 0.704 0.560Brazil 0.846 0.724 0.656 0.540 0.480Chile 0.811 0.629 0.564 0.540 0.457China 0.773 0.685 0.514 0.481 0.382Ghana 0.934 0.946 0.887 0.799 0.736India 0.796 0.759 0.717 0.638 0.551Indonesia 0.868 0.807 0.673 0.547 0.483Thailand 0.904 0.756 0.532 0.447 0.417Turkey 0.850 0.787 0.671 0.560 0.478Base case 0.462 0.434 0.433 0.481Fast track 0.457 0.422 0.418 0.465Base case 0.443 0.484 0.540 0.637Fast track 0.437 0.460 0.499 0.589Base case 0.471 0.549 0.609 0.659Fast track 0.467 0.531 0.582 0.630Base case 0.408 0.450 0.587 0.655Fast track 0.404 0.434 0.562 0.628Base case 0.704 0.656 0.643 0.645Fast track 0.686 0.595 0.548 0.532Base case 0.518 0.496 0.491 0.511Fast track 0.510 0.474 0.463 0.480Base case 0.452 0.457 0.504 0.571Fast track 0.451 0.454 0.501 0.567Base case 0.426 0.488 0.576 0.656Fast track 0.425 0.484 0.570 0.650Base case 0.458 0.467 0.504 0.585Fast track 0.450 0.443 0.473 0.547Source: HDRO calculations based on Lutz and KC (2013). See Technical appendix for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.the wealthiest people tend to lead the declinein fertility, producing a short-term increase inincome inequality as they capture the benefitsof demographic change first. Then the middleclass catches up as its members educate daughtersand plan families, followed by the poor.Eventually fertility is lower across all incomegroups, and the economic benefits of the demographicdividend are spread more evenly. 45 Thisis consistent with previous studies for LatinAmerica and Africa. 46This short-term rise in inequality is notinevitable, however, and can be influenced bypublic policies, especially in education andreproductive health, that enable the benefitsof the demographic transition to reach allincome groups at the same time. Considerthe three countries with the largest declines inchild dependency ratios: Côte d’Ivoire (with aGDP per capita in 2011 of $1,800), Namibia($6,800) and Peru ($10,300). In Côte d’Ivoire,the dependency ratio fell most among the richand least among the poor; in Namibia, it fellmost in the middle of the income range; andin Peru, it fell across the board in roughly equalamounts. 47 See box 4.2 for a discussion of thedistribution of the benefits of the demographicdividend in China and Ghana.In 13 of 18 countries with a declining dependencyratio and rising female educationover 1970–2010, rising labour productivityover 1980–2008 and falling unemploymentover 2005–2010, the female labour participationrate grew faster than the overall labour participationrate over 2000–2004 to 2005–2010,indicating greater gender balance in the labourmarket. Employment, however, did not necessarilybecome easier as education levels rose.Indeed, in some countries, the labour marketsituation became tighter for better educatedfemale workers. Additional policy measures areneeded to promote labour market conditionsthat offer productive opportunities for a morequalified and expanded labour force.Chapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 99
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WNSEHuman DevelopmentReport 2013The
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Human Development Report 2013The Ri
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Human Development Report 2013 TeamD
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Finally, the Report also calls for
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Heather Simpson, Ben Slay, Mounir T
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3.6 India’s Supreme Court issues
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OverviewOne of the most heartening
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and sustainability are fully incorp
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Without investment in people, retur
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opportunity to reap the full benefi
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Woods institutions, the United Nati
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IntroductionWhen developed economie
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leading economies—Brazil, China a
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comparable access to information, e
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mobile phones: cellular banking is
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“The political problem ofmankind
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BOX 1.1Fairness, macroeconomics and
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BOX 1.3Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
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FIGURE 1.1Income per capita is risi
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BOX 1.4Subjective indicators of wel
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FIGURE 1.4There is notable variatio
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FIGURE 1.6Most regions show declini
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Progress in humandevelopment achiev
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BOX 1.7Social competencies: human d
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TABLE 1.3Inequality and satisfactio
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Not all countries havethe precondit
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“When the music changes,so does t
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BOX 2.1The South’s integration wi
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FIGURE 2.1As a share of world merch
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Page 62 and 63: FIGURE 2.3Between 2000 and 2010, In
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Page 76 and 77: TABLE 3.1Selected developing countr
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Page 82 and 83: BOX 3.5Eastern Europe and Central A
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Page 88 and 89: Having weathered theAsian financial
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Page 94 and 95: Universal public healthand educatio
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Page 100 and 101: concerns will make for a complex en
Page 102 and 103: A greater emphasison education cans
Page 104 and 105: FIGURE 4.1Under the fast track scen
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Page 112 and 113: BOX 4.2China and Ghana: who benefit
Page 114 and 115: FIGURE 4.8countries thus converge t
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Page 118 and 119: Areas of globalinternational concer
Page 120 and 121: Addressing climatechange requires t
Page 122 and 123: International governanceis increasi
Page 124 and 125: BOX 5.2Jo Leinen, Member of the Eur
Page 126 and 127: facilitates reserve investments and
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Page 130 and 131: FIGURE 5.1Under the accelerated pro
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Page 134 and 135: A fair and less unequalworld requir
Page 137 and 138: NotesOverview1 Atsmon and others 20
Page 139 and 140: 25 Blinder 2006.26 UNIDO 2009.27 UN
Page 141 and 142: which is 61.7 deaths per 1,000 live
Page 143 and 144: ReferencesAbdurazakov, A., A. Minsa
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Page 153 and 154: Statistical acknowledgementsThe Rep
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Statistical referencesADB (Asian De
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Core features of the model pertinen
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Countries and HDI ranks in 2012 and
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Human Development Report 2013 - UNDP

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