A greater emphasison education cansubstantially reducechild deaths in allcountries and regionsover the years. The results from the fast trackscenario show substantially fewer child deathsas mother’s level of schooling rises. The modelalso shows that a greater emphasis on progressin education would substantially and continuallyreduce child deaths in all countries andregions, as a direct result of improvements ingirls’ education (table 4.2).India has the most projected child deathsover 2010–2015, almost 7.9 million, accountingfor about half the deaths among childrenunder age 5 in Asia. 7 In the final projectionperiod, 2045–2050, nearly 6.1 million childrenare projected to die under the base case scenariobut just half that many (3.1 million) under thefast track scenario.China has more people than India but is projectedto have less than a quarter (1.7 million)the number of child deaths over 2010–2015.And due to China’s advances in education,projections look optimistic under both scenarios.If China follows the fast track scenario, asseems likely, child deaths will decline to abouthalf a million by 2045–2050, less than a thirdof the current level.Projections are less optimistic for someother countries. Under the base case scenario,child deaths in Kenya, for example, wouldrise from about 582,000 in 2010–2015 toabout 1.6 million in 2045–2050. Under thefast track scenario, the number of deathsover 2045–2050 would drop to 371,000,much better, but not far below the level in2010–2015.The projected declines in child deaths reflectthe combined effects of better educatedwomen having fewer children and of fewerof those children dying. The projections alsoshow that policy interventions have a greaterimpact where education outcomes are initiallyweaker.These results underscore the importance ofreducing gender inequality, especially in educationand in low <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> IndexTABLE 4.2Projected number of deaths of children under age 5, by education scenario, 2010–2015, 2025–2030 and2045–2050 (thousands)Country or regionCountry2010–2015 2025–2030 2045–2050Base case Base case Fast track Base case Fast trackBrazil 328 224 177 161 102China 1,716 897 871 625 526India 7,872 6,707 4,806 6,096 3,064Kenya 582 920 482 1,552 371Korea, Rep. 9 8 9 7 7Mali 488 519 318 541 150Pakistan 1,927 1,641 1,225 1,676 773South Africa 288 198 165 134 93RegionAfrica 16,552 18,964 12,095 24,185 7,495Asia 15,029 11,715 8,924 10,561 5,681Europe 276 209 204 196 187Latin America and the Caribbean 1,192 963 704 950 413North America 162 160 155 165 152Oceania 11 11 11 12 10Note: See Technical appendix at the end of this <strong>Report</strong> for a discussion of the base case and fast track scenarios.Source: Lutz and KC <strong>2013</strong>.90 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT <strong>2013</strong>
(HDI) countries. Gender inequality is especiallytragic not only because it excludes womenfrom basic social opportunities, but alsobecause it gravely imperils the life prospects offuture generations.Enabling voice and participationIn the 1995 <strong>Human</strong> <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Report</strong>,Mahbub ul Haq highlighted that unless peoplecan participate meaningfully in the events andprocesses that shape their lives, national humandevelopment paths will be neither desirable norsustainable.Equitable and sustainable human developmentrequires systems of public discoursethat encourage citizens to participate in thepolitical process by expressing their viewsand voicing their concerns. People should beable to influence policymaking and results,and young people should be able to look forwardto greater economic opportunities andpolitical accountability. Exclusion from thisprocess limits people’s ability to communicatetheir concerns and needs and can perpetuateinjustices.Autocratic regimes impose restrictionsthat directly counter human development byrestraining essential freedoms. But even indemocracies, poor people and poor groups oftenhave limited access to information, voice orpublic participation. Poor people need to worktogether to effectively exercise their politicalvoice. Yet in many countries, organizationsrepresenting the poor are not supported butdiscouraged. Democracies can also extendaccountability from what is often a narrowconstituency of elites to all citizens, particularlythose who have been underrepresented inpublic discourse, such as women, youth and thepoor.Governments that do not respond to citizens’needs or widen opportunities for politicalparticipation risk losing their legitimacy.Dissatisfaction is on the rise in the Northand the South as people call for more opportunitiesto voice their concerns and influencepolicy, especially on basic social protection.According to a recent International LabourOrganization report, government dissatisfaction,measured by the Social Unrest Index, rosein 57 of 106 countries from 2010 to 2011. Thelargest increases were in countries of the North,followed by those in the Arab States and Sub-Saharan Africa. 9People in the North have been protestingagainst austerity measures and reductions inpublic spending and jobs, as in France, Greece,Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Citizenshave challenged governments to address thesocial consequences of their policies, pointingout that the burden of austerity is being bornedisproportionately by the poor and sociallydisadvantaged. 10 Other focuses of unrest haveincluded food prices, unemployment andpollution:• Rising food prices. Riots in response to highfood prices in 2008 challenged stability inmore than 30 countries in Africa and theArab States. 11• Unemployment and low wages. Workers aredemanding that governments respond totheir needs. The unemployed are voicingtheir dissatisfaction in many countries. 12 InViet Nam strikes doubled in 2011 as workersstruggled to gain higher wages in the face ofinflation. 13• Environmental pollution. Mass protestsagainst environmental pollution are alsowidespread. Protesters in Shanghai, China,for example, fought a proposed wastewaterpipeline, 14 and in Malaysia local residentshave been opposing the constructionof a rare earth metal refinery in theirneighbourhood. 15Among the most active protesters are youth,in part a response to job shortages and limitedemployment opportunities for educatedyoung people. In a sample of 48 countries,youth unemployment was more than 20% in2011, well above the 9.6% overall rate. 16 Youthdiscontent in response to rising unemploymentis even more likely in areas with an educatedpopulation. 17 Education alters people’sexpectations of government and instils thepolitical skills and resources needed to challengegovernment decisions. This is not tosay that the educated have greater rights. Butunless governments give greater priority tojob creation, they are likely to face increasingyouth dissatisfaction as education coverageexpands (figure 4.1). 18At the same time, mobile broadband Internetand other modern technologies are openingDissatisfaction is on therise as people call formore opportunities tovoice their concerns andinfluence policy, especiallyon basic social protectionChapter 4 Sustaining momentum | 91
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