Urban food security, urban resilience and climate change - weADAPT

2. How is food security (in general and in cities) likely to be impacted byclimate change?The effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate a range of existing problems withfood supply. These include the problem of food security and food colonisation generallyfor example. Morgan & Sonnino (2010) have coined the phrase ‘the new food equation’to describe the constellation of complex new developments that have obligedpoliticians and planners to treat food policy more seriously. This constellation includesthe food price surge of 2007/08 which led to a sharp rise in global food insecurity. Thiscontributed to the current position of food security as a matter of national security andmay be leading to new forms of ‘food colonialism’ (Morgan & Sonnino, 2009:210)whereby cash rich but food poor countries systematically buy up the productivecapacity of poorer countries. Rapid urbanisation in many countries is also raisingconcerns about the resilience of urban food supply chains. While the effects of morevariable rainfall patterns, more very hot days, more severe storms and changingpatterns of vector borne diseases are likely to have profound effects on traditionalagricultural practices, they will also affect urban agriculture.One of the most significant reviews of food security in Australia is included in the recentreport from the Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council(PMSEIC, 2010), entitled Australian and Food Security in a Changing World. Thisnotes that climate change will have a number of direct impacts on food production as aresult of changing patterns of rainfall, more very hot days and soil erosion. But here arealso likely to be significant indirect effects such as disruptions to supply lines as a resultof floods, cyclones and more very hot days.Australian agriculture is highly dependent on the climate and its variability:Australia is indeed ‘a land of droughts and flooding rains’. Climate affects almostevery aspect of food production: the plants and animals used, averageproduction and production variability, product quality, what areas are farmed,what soil types are preferred, the management systems and technologies used,input costs, product prices and natural resource management. It, therefore,follows that if the climate changes, many aspects of food production will changetoo (PMSEIC, 2010:12).And these anticipated impacts are likely to be, on balance, negative rather than positivealthough there may be new opportunities in a changed environment... .the predicted environmental changes associated with climate change areexpected to have an overall negative effect on agricultural production with seriouscrop declines in some countries (PMSEIC, 2010:21).These negative impacts are varied:Climate change will considerably alter the productivity of arable land. As rainfallretreats to the coast and inland temperatures rise, the effective rainfall incurrently productive areas will be lowered quickly. Areas currently cropped toproduce grain will become increasingly marginal and be turned over to extensivegrazing. Such areas are often characterised by low soil nutrients and unable tosustain grazing systems without fertiliser input. Although climate change mayincrease the proportion of marginal arable land due to reduced effective rainfall,land degradation processes such as salinity and acidification may slow, as theseare driven by profile water movement. The decreased biomass production,however, significantly increases erosion risks associated with reduced vegetativecover, resulting in dust storms and silted dams. Land use conflicts are likely toUrban food security, urban resilience and climate change 81