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<strong>the</strong> technological imperative 173(van Ham, 1993; Gardner, 1994), but also a stab at <strong>the</strong>ory (Ogilvie-White,1996). Concern about <strong>the</strong> link between civil nuclear power and <strong>the</strong> potentialfor nuclear weapons remained an ongoing <strong>the</strong>me (Dauvergne, 1993;Perkovich, 1993a; Kokoski, 1996; Yamanouchi, 1997; Harrison, 1998),as was missile proliferation (Frye, 1992; Harvey, 1992; Pedatzur, 1994).The debate opened by Waltz about whe<strong>the</strong>r or not nuclear proliferationwas a good or bad thing also continued (Lee, 1995; Sagan and Waltz,1995; Thayer, 1995b; Feaver, 1997), as did that about why states wantnuclear weapons (Sagan, 1996/7) and <strong>the</strong> linkage between <strong>the</strong> ongoingpossession <strong>of</strong> nuclear weapons by some states (substantial cuts in nucleararsenals post-Cold War notwithstanding) and <strong>the</strong> dynamics <strong>of</strong> proliferationin non-nuclear weapon states (Quinlan, 1993). Although certainlynot absent from <strong>the</strong> Cold War literature, <strong>the</strong>re was more <strong>of</strong> a tone <strong>of</strong>pessimism in much <strong>of</strong> this literature, with some authors assuming <strong>the</strong>erosion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> non-proliferation regime and moving to think about <strong>the</strong>nature <strong>of</strong> a proliferated world (Feaver, 1992/3; van Creveld, 1993; Karl,1996/7; Posen, 1997; Preston, 1997; Delpech, 1998/9; Thakur, 2000). As<strong>the</strong> history <strong>of</strong> this subject leng<strong>the</strong>ned, <strong>the</strong>re was also <strong>the</strong> beginnings <strong>of</strong>attempts to apply <strong>the</strong> lessons <strong>of</strong> history to <strong>the</strong> new proliferants (Blightand Welch, 1995). Against this pessimism <strong>the</strong>re was some good news in<strong>the</strong> abandonment <strong>of</strong> nuclear weapons in South Africa and <strong>the</strong> windingdown <strong>of</strong> apparent nuclear weapons programmes in Brazil and Argentina(Spector, 1992; Howlett and Simpson, 1993).Notable new <strong>the</strong>mes were <strong>the</strong> perceived threats and problems fromnew nuclear weapon states (Deutch, 1992; Karl, 1996/7; Preston, 1997;Glaser, 1998), including <strong>the</strong> spreading problem <strong>of</strong> increasing numbers<strong>of</strong> states with short or very short lead times separating <strong>the</strong>m from apossible shift from non-nuclear to nuclear weapon status (Fortmann,1992/3; Mazarr, 1995a; Cohen and Pilat, 1998). Some <strong>of</strong> this literatureblended proliferation with issues <strong>of</strong> deterrence (Feaver, 1992/3; Sagan,1994; Joseph and Reichart, 1998) so, along with Israel, rescuing that topicfrom near oblivion. There was concern about <strong>the</strong> pros and cons <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>US shift from <strong>the</strong> non-proliferation policy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Cold War to a moreunilateralist and potentially military anti-proliferation policy (Roberts,1993; Schneider, 1994; Feaver and Niou, 1996; Joseph, 1996; Kristensenand Handler, 1996; Posen, 1997; Andreani, 1999/2000). There was alsoincreased focus on terrorism, not just with nuclear weapons, but also,especially given <strong>the</strong> advances in biological technology, with o<strong>the</strong>r weapons<strong>of</strong> mass destruction (WMD) (Failey, 1995; Tucker, 1996, 1999, 2000;Steinbruner, 1997/8; Betts, 1998; Carter et al., 1998; Falkenrath, 1998,2001; Survival, 1998/9).

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