the-evolution-of-international-security-studies

268 conclusionsEventsWe have already shown how the GWoT has impacted on, though nottransformed, ISS. If things carry on as they have between 2001 and thetime of writing (summer 2008), then the GWoT could easily fade intothe margins of security concerns. But if terrorist attacks intensify, andespecially if they begin to involve WMD, then the GWoT could become‘the new Cold War’, a successful macrosecuritisation that shapes bothworld politics and ISS for several decades.But perhaps more interesting than this is the possibility, and arguablythe growing probability, that events in the environmental sector willemerge to trump all other security concerns. Environmental issues arethe wild card in the security pack. So far they have been rather marginal.But as the sudden upsurge of concern about food security in 2007–2008showed, when the diversion of agricultural production to biofuels helped,along with high oil prices, to jack up the price of many basic foods, theyare capable of changing the game quickly and radically. There are manypossibilities. Imagine, for example, the consequences if it is authoritativelyannounced tomorrow that a two-kilometre-wide chunk of rock hasreliably been predicted to be on a collision course with Earth twenty yearsfrom now (Mellor, 2007). All priorities would change immediately.But on present trends the two most likely environmental wild cardsare global warming (Dupont, 2008) and the possibility of a rampantand virulent epidemic. As of 2008, the general consciousness about thedangers of global warming was, like the planetary temperature, on therise. Embedded within the warming scenario are plenty of specific eventsthat would have very major consequences for the present disposition ofhuman habitation on the planet. For example, the already feared rapidcollapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet would raise sea levels by at leastsix metres, and even a substantial partial collapse might cause one or twometres increase. This would flood many low-lying coastal areas, and manycoastal cities, displacing tens or possibly hundreds of millions of people.Climate change on this scale would create huge crises in the supply offood, energy and other basic requisites of civilisation. If the event is theemergence of a new disease that combines ease of transmission (like thecommon cold) with high fatality (like Ebola), then at the very least theimpactontheworldeconomywouldbehugeasquarantinesandtravelbans shut down vast amounts of trade and tourism. If the impact of thedisease was severe enough it could destabilise the social and political orderin many places. Although the occurrence of specific scenarios like these is