the-evolution-of-international-security-studies

the outlook for iss 269difficult to predict with much accuracy, the general probability that theywilloccurinthenottoodistantfutureisrising.When/iftheydo,theywill reshuffle the cards with which ISS has mainly been played since 1945.TechnologyTechnological impacts have been an important shaper of ISS, most obviouslyduring the Cold War with its endless concerns about the impactsof new technological capabilities on the military balance. Also notablehas been the very large and continuous presence of nuclear weapons inISS thinking, whether in the form of worries about deterrence logic orin the form of concerns about nuclear proliferation. It is easy to imaginescenarios that simply extend technology discussions that are alreadyan established part of ISS. There might, for example, be a local or amore general breakdown of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and arapid move to a proliferated world of many small nuclear weapon states,and possibly nuclear-armed non-state actors. In the other direction, thedevelopment of a workable BMD system would still make a noticeabledifference to strategic thinking. Similarly, there might be a struggle forthe ‘high frontier’ of space as a means of asserting and resisting strategicdominance, though this development would have to overcome theincreasing financial attractions of cooperation for space science and thecommercial development of space.Less conventionally, one might speculate about the impact of more andmore sophisticated robot soldiers and pilots – already in limited use – andthe implications they have for both ethical and tactical thinking about whouses force and how and when it is used. The tendency of capitalist societiesto replace labour with capital pushes in this direction for purposesof destruction as well as production, as does the reluctance of rich, lowbirth-ratesocieties to incur casualties. If the war ‘dead’ are machines, thenthe relationship of society to war and warriors is fundamentally transformed.Another technologically driven scenario involves cyber-securitythreats where terrorists or other malign actors attack physical and digitalstructures, thereby bringing down critical infrastructures and globalcommunication networks. Clearly, the effects of such concerted attackswould be devastating, but their likelihood is hugely debated with somecorners of the cyber-security debate pointing to severe digital vulnerabilities,while others hold that such discourse vastly exaggerates both terroristcapabilities and the weaknesses of Western digital systems (Latham, 2003;Nissenbaum, 2005; Hansen and Nissenbaum, forthcoming).