Territorial Review Copenhagen - Region Hovedstaden

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operation of the bridge will generate a net gain of about EUR 1.9 billion over a
period of 50 years. The most substantial impacts will occur in the direct vicinity
of the bridge; regions that will experience the greatest impact will be Lübeck
and Kiel on the German side (four times the regional GDP) and Lolland-Falster
on the Danish side (more than four times the regional GDP). Sjaelland will also
benefit from the new infrastructure, while Fünen and Jutland will be unaffected.
According to this study, positive effects will be felt as far as Örebro in Sweden
(700 kilometres to the north) and Hesse in Germany (600 kilometres to the
south). These considerations take into account the argument that employment in
the ferry service industries will decline. There will also be a loss of maritimerelated
jobs.
According to a second study by Copenhagen Economics and Prognos 3 in
2006, the following sectors will benefit most from the new infrastructure:
construction (direct effect), tourism (increased potential and competitiveness),
export-oriented SMEs (transport costs will decrease and there will be positive
stimuli to cluster health care and medical technology). To realise these benefits,
a common strategy should be developed. For Storstrøms in Denmark, the
transport and logistics industries appear to have limited possibilities for
developing into a large cluster, but business and employment in other sectors
will increase, such as metals, paper and agriculture. Positive effects are expected
through the improved use of German clusters and knowledge institutions that
deal with seeds, vegetable fibres and composites, as well as the fields of
environment, energy and waste. Benefits are also expected from increased
tourism activities, especially if a common strategy can be developed with
Ostholstein. According to the study, tourism could increase by 20% as a result of
the fixed link. Day-to-day commuting across the Øresund, however, is not
expected on a large scale. With regard to Ostholstein, broad development in the
health care sector is expected, as well as some growth in tourism. Moreover, a
fixed Fehmarn Belt link will offer new prospects for the port of Puttgarden.
Situated at the intersection of the Kiel-Baltic seaway, it may be able to develop
into a more competitive maritime business location.
Notes:
1. BMVBS/Germany and Trafikministeriet Denmark: Kocks Consult GmbH, Institute of
Shipping Economics and Logistics Bremen and Carl Bro A/S Consulting Engineers
Glostrup: Investigation of Socio-Economic and Regional Consequences of a Fixed Link
Across the Fehmarnbelt, 1999.
2. Copenhagen Economics and Prognos, Economy-wide Benefits: Dynamic and Strategic
Effects of a Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link, 2004, at
www.bmvbs.de/Anlage/original_950362/Economy-wide-benefits_-Dynamic-and-
Strategic-Effects-of-a-Fehmarn-Belt-Fixed-Link_-June-2004.pdf.
3. Copenhagen Economics and Prognos, Regional Effects of a Fixed Fehmarn Belt Link,
2006, under: www.bmvbs.de/Anlage/original_950359/Regional-Effects-of-a-Fixed-
Fehmarn-Belt-Link_-February-2006.pdf.