A Case Study in NASA-DoD - The Black Vault

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the basis for a cooperative working relationship at all levels. It also
yielded an understanding of the impact of the time and budget constraints,
a number of productive informal progress review sessions, and expedient
resolution of problems having to do with data, ground rules, and other
inputs.
Ripeness of the Air Force Procurement Decision
At the outset of this study it was quite apparent that the Air Force
Space Test Program Office was on the verge of making a procurement decision
to buy or develop a standard spacecraft. There were several reasons
for this impression. First, the Space Test Program Office is an operating
office having the responsibility of providing spacecraft for experimental
missions. Second, the Air Force had selected the Space Test Program
Office for one of the first Air Force payloads to fly on the space
shuttle (Orbital Flight Test -5). The schedule for this shuttle flight
would require a FY77 spacecraft procurement decision. Third, its past
experience with designing low-cost spacecraft had been noticeably successful
and had influenced NASA's AEM and MS programs. The application
of this experience to the STPSS tended to support its position that a
low-cost standard spacecraft was the approach to follow during the space
shuttle era.
Under these circumstances, it was not surprising that the Space Test
Program Office was anxious to move forward with the study regardless of
whether or not the preferred procurement option included the STPSS. This
contributed to the Air Force cooperation and interest in the study.
Tractability of the Problem
Although this case study included a wide variety of uncertainties
that ranged from the spacecraft descriptions to the space shuttle
launch costs, it had the characteristics of a problem that could be
handled using conventional analytic methods. Because of these uncertainties,
one of the largest risks that threatened the study was associated
with having the results be overwhelmed by the magnitude of the
uncertainties so that no guidance could be given. The other major risk
had to do with becoming so involved in the details of the spacecraft