improving government service delivery to minority ethnic ... - NCCRI

Prospects for ongoing strong immigration
The Irish economy is extremely exposed to global trends, because of its dependence on foreign direct
investment and its extremely export-driven growth patterns. However, barring unforeseeable catastrophic
events, current projections suggest that continuing strong growth is likely. The Economic and Social Research
Institute’s Medium Term Review 2003-2010 suggests that employment is likely to grow by a further 220,000
jobs between 2005 and 2010, generating further net immigration of at least 100,000 for the period.
In addition, the Government appears to be moving towards a regime which recognises a continuing need
for some high-skilled migration from outside the EEA. The assumption seems to be that migrants from the
new accession states will take the less skilled posts, which in fact appears to be happening (although many
have post-second level education). These patterns may change as other EU member states open their labour
markets. Media reports suggest that the Government is unlikely to extend free access to the Irish labour market
to the next accession states (Romania and Bulgaria in 2007), at least as long as a number of the major member
states still have not opened their borders to the first accession states.
212_National Economic
and Social Council (2005),
NESC Strategy 2006:
People, Productivity and
Purpose.
213_The Total Fertility Rate
(the number of children a
woman of child-bearing
age is expected to have
in her childbearing years)
is currently 1.98, slightly
below the replacement level
of 2.1.
The effects of high levels of immigration are now visible across the geographical, economic, social, religious
and cultural landscapes of Ireland. Goods and services aimed at ethnic niche markets, new revivalist churches
and other faith communities, print and electronic media in various languages, the challenges of increasingly
multilingual and multiethnic school, workplace and community environments, the need for more effective action
against racism and discrimination, are all testimony to the scale of change. For the first time, the 2006 Census
form was translated into 11 languages as well as Irish and English and information on completing the Census
form was provided in a further five languages; it also contained a new question on ethnicity.
Demographic Projections
In a comparative context, Ireland’s current demographic change is unique in Europe. Projections suggest
that Ireland’s population could reach 5 million in 2030, which could exceed the population of Scotland for
the first time since the foundation of the State. The present population of Ireland is just over 4 million and the
percentage of foreign-born people could exceed 1 million in 2030, compared with 400,000 at the time of 2002
census. This would equate to about 18% of the population in 2030, higher than the present rate of all EU
countries, including those that have experienced high levels of inward migration in the past. 212
The recent and projected population increase in Ireland are the result of two main factors, firstly the continuing
comparatively high fertility rates in Ireland 213 and the level of net inward migration (which continues to include a
significant, though declining proportion of returning Irish emigrants).
These dramatic projections have significant implications for policy makers and service provision in Ireland
through the creation of additional demands on services and in ensuring that the way that services are delivered
takes account of this increased diversity.