climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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near-coastal ecosystems. Reducing drainage is key; implemented by reducing irrigation volume using advanced technologies and eliminating system inefficiencies. Drainage water can also be captured and reused for plants with higher saline tolerance. 3.9. Uncertainty of <strong>climate</strong> impacts: a challenge to water planners There are several potential sources of uncertainty associated with the GCMs used to provide the results summarized above. These uncertainties include the way that atmospheric boundary conditions are represented in the models, the manner in which aerosols and drift are addressed, as well as the inherent uncertainty associated with the greenhouse gas emissions Scenarios themselves. While droughts and <strong>change</strong>s in precipitation patterns are typically regarded as inevitable, uncertainty surround the degree of severity and the extent to which remaining resources are impacts. Water use, in particular that for irrigation, generally increases with temperature and decreases with precipitation; however, there is no evidence for a <strong>climate</strong>-related long-term trend of water use in the past. This is due, in part, to the fact that water use is mainly driven by non-climatic factors, and is also due to the poor quality of water-use data in general, and of time-series data in particular (IPCC 2007). Stresses on water resources are also evolving simultaneously so population pressures on aquifers are now layered with increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation. Among the most important drivers of water use is population, economic development, and changing societal views on the value of water. The latter refers to the prioritization of domestic and industrial water supply over irrigation water supply and the efficient use of water, including the extended application of watersaving technologies and water pricing (IPCC SR on water, June 2008). This is particularly salient when discussing irrigation, because the rules of irrigation game and working towards sustainable management strategies revolves around how irrigation is managed and how water is allocated (Postel, 1999). Tropical storms and other hazards are of particular concern if and when the majority of the UAE’s water supply for human consumption and otherwise relies on the country’s capacity to desalinate Persian Gulf seawater. Desalination plants are easily sabotaged; they can be attacked from the air or by shelling from offshore; and their intake ports have to be kept clear, giving another simple way of preventing their operation (Bullock and Darwish, 1993). According to the Central Intelligence Agency’s “Middle East Area Oil and Gas Map” there is a stunning concentration of oil facilities in the region. (Middle East Area Oil and Gas Map, Central Intelligence Agency map #801357, June 1990). The Persian Gulf has 29 major tanker ports and 16 major shore-based refineries and the United Arab Emirates exemplifies this pattern with 10 tanker ports and 3 coastal refineries that share approximately 300 miles of coastline with 40 major desalination plants (Wangnick, 1990). One team of researchers has already modeled the effect of an oil spill near Umm Al Nar desalination plant. Malek and Mohame (2005) used a hydrodynamic model to predict the direction and concentration of oil around the station with emphasis on the places where seawater was used as feed water to the station. They discussed the influence of oil contaminated seawater, when it is used as the feed water to the desalination plant, on the performance of system equipments and production water. The found that contamination of the facilities by oil negatively affects the efficiency of the seawater desalination, the product water itself will be polluted which would cause the complete stop of the potable water supply and a lower efficiency rate generation of the thermal power station. In addition to the uncertainty described above, research of global historical data suggests that heavy rainfall events and prolonged droughts should be included in modeling efforts. Studies of coral assemblages in the Arabian Gulf suggest that the area has at least a partial link to the monsoon and El NiÑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (Purkis and Riegl, 2005). These events have increased in magnitude since the 1970s and it has been suggested that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> may continue to <strong>change</strong> the frequency 100 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines et al., 2000), although the extent of the effect is uncertain. Addressing the uncertainty around the <strong>change</strong>s of tropical storms occurrence, on the scale of 2007’s Cyclone Gonu, is outside the scope of this report, though is an area worth further research by water planners. While it is difficult to model potential <strong>change</strong>s related to ENSO, heavy rainfall, and drought events, they all have the potential to significantly affect the social and natural systems of the UAE. Circulation in the Arabian Gulf is linked to ENSO events therefore <strong>change</strong>s in the cycle of these events may directly affect the UAE. Risks to the Emirate’s off-shore, desalination infrastructure whether from oil spills, or cyclones could suggest a worthwhile investment in a strategic water reserve safe from these hazards. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi 101
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99: neglected infrastructure, regional
Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106: including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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