climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

a second landfall in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
While historical record does not go back very far,
these types of storms are very, very unusual for
this part of the world. Gonu, and the possibility
of a similar storm in the future, raised concern
due to the Gulf region’s s sensitive coastal
infrastructure of heavy oil drilling activities,
tanker traffic, and coastal population density.
As a sizeable portion of the world’s petroleum
exports go through the Gulf of Oman, any
slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite
noticeable on the world markets.
Figure ‎2‐9. Tropical Cyclone Gonu churns off the
coast of the Middle East and southern Asia (NASA).
In 2007, Cyclone Gonu became the first
documented Category-5 cyclone in the
Arabian Sea. Gonu made landfall in Oman
with maximum sustained winds near 148 km/
hr. In Oman, the cyclone affected more than
20,000 people and was responsible for more
than 50 fatalities. In Figure ‎2‐9, Cylone Gonu
approaches the Gulf of Oman and Strait of
Hormuz (NASA, n.d.).
Gonu moved through the Arabian Gulf making
Some recent global <strong>climate</strong> model experiments
suggest a future decline in tropical cyclone
frequency (Royer et al., 1998) while others argue
for an increased likelihood of <strong>change</strong>s in the
tropical storms in the event of global warming
(Knutson et al., 1999; Henderson-Sellers et
al., 1998; Royer et al., 1998 and Krishnamurti
et al., 1998; Elsner et al., 2008). Although the
studies carried out so far are inconclusive on
the likely <strong>change</strong>s in frequency of cyclones,
it is almost certain that an increase in sea
surface temperature will be accompanied by
a corresponding increase in cyclone intensity.
Recent studies suggest a possible increase
in cyclone intensity of 10-20% for a rise in sea
Figure ‎2‐10. Area of stronger than normal northwesterly winds (Shamal) and higher wind waves.
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