climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

that remediation steps begin soon to reduce
the invasion probability.
Modeling to understand
vulnerabilities
In 1998, a team from the University of Wisconsin
demonstrated a successful coupling between
a rigorous atmospheric transport model
(GENESIS) and an ecosystem model (IBIS)
to explore dynamics between vegetation cover
and climatic variability (Foley et al., 1998).
This effort was a first attempt to create a
comprehensive ecosystem model which would
come to equilibrium on its own by cycling
through feedback loops between vegetation
and the atmosphere. Although in error, the
model indicated that increasing vegetation
throughout the African Sahel and the Arabian
peninsula would lead to cooler temperatures,
and subsequently more precipitation and
denser vegetation.
This observation was further explored by Wang
et al. (2006) where, using an improved version
of the GENESIS-IBIS model, the researchers
found that seasonal vegetation dynamics in the
Sahel enhance the severity of multi-decadal
droughts. The results found that if vegetation
was allowed to persist naturally in the Sahel,
droughts may be less severe. However, intensive
land use and vegetation losses in the African
Sahel may have brought about a more persistent
drought than would otherwise be expected.
Modeling for adaptive
management
Adaptive management is a technique
of iteratively managing ecosystems for
conservation goals and checking to ensure that
benchmarks and goals are met on a regular
basis, adjusting management techniques
where necessary to achieve the goal. The
system incorporates modeling explicitly as a
management and benchmarking tool. Franklin
et al., (2007) describes the process of creating
an adaptive management program and its
application to controlling Bromus tectorum in
the Western US (see above for details).
An adaptive management program comprises
several iterative steps (see Figure 4). First,
a conservation goal is set, such as the
preservation of a specific species or community,
or establishment of a rare species, or the
preservation of a certain type of biodiversity in a
specific system. Secondly, a detailed model of the
specific ecosystem is created which incorporates
critical components of both management
and naturally occurring processes. Third, a
management plan is developed from the results
of the model, and a monitoring plan is developed
to independently test hypotheses posed in the
management plan. The management plan is then
implemented, and results are regularly checked
against benchmarked goals and hypotheses.
New information learned from the management
process is incorporated into the next model,
and the entire process is iterated. The goal of
the adaptive management process is to use the
management as a natural experiment, in which
a vetted, hypothesized management plan is
tested and the results used to craft the next
iteration of the management plan.
Frankin et al. (2007) describes a case study
of an adaptive management program in the
state of Wyoming in western United States
designed to control B. tectorum. In this
program, a non-profit organization developed
several “treatments” to control cheatgrass, and
designated small portions of a prairie reserve
into experimental areas to test the various
management techniques, including burning,
applying herbicides, grazing, and planting
native grasses. In each region, the managers
tested for biodiversity, bird density, and habitat
use to determine the efficacy of the treatment.
Similarly, a federal program to control
cheatgrass in a major US National Park in the
arid southwest (Mesa Verde) used modeling
to explore how changing fire patterns might
either inhibit or enhance the rate of invasion
by B. tectorum (Romme et al., 2006). The
project employed the SIMPPLLE (Simulating
Vegetation Patterns and Processes at Landscape
Scales) model to estimate how different fires
might <strong>change</strong> vegetation outcomes. The model
results are guiding fire management procedures
in the park.
9.4 Next steps for modeling and
data collection in the UAE
One of the most promising approaches for
comprehensively understanding and then
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for
Dryland Ecosystems in Abu Dhabi
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