climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

More documents

Recommendations

Info

1. Introduction The Abu Dhabi Emirate (ADE), is one of the seven Emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which occupies an area of 67,340 km², almost 80% of the total area of UAE. The Emirate has a hyper-arid <strong>climate</strong> with less than 100 mm/yr of precipitation, a very high potential evaporation rate (2-3m / yr), a very low groundwater recharge rate (
in storage occurs in the Liwa lens and only about 4 km³ in the Eastern region. Moreover, according to the GWRP assessment, at current groundwater abstraction rates, it is projected that the fresh and brackish groundwater resources will be depleted in 50 years. Longterm strategies for water planning, management and conservation are not yet in place. Water projects are usually massive and require high investments while the economic returns of are generally low as compared to other investment sectors. Efforts launched to date have been hindered by the shortage of available funds for water development and conservation projects. Water resource management typically implicates numerous and diverse socio-economic sectors including agriculture, human and ecosystem health, coastal zones, and infrastructure. The case is no different for the UAE, where any <strong>change</strong>s in <strong>climate</strong> conditions, such as temperature and precipitation, can place further stress on already severely limited groundwater and surface water resources. Potential <strong>change</strong>s in <strong>climate</strong> are then a cause for serious concern and careful consideration and planning. Because groundwater resources in Abu Dhabi are derived from fairly deep geologic structures, and those near the coast are already highly saline, the impact of rising sea levels along the Arabian Gulf likely will not appreciably impact the groundwater quality over the next century. Rather, the bigger concern with regard to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> appears to be the potential for even larger growth in water demand that could be superimposed on the already explosive demand presently stressing these scarce groundwater resources. For example, while summer temperatures are already extreme through the ADE, <strong>change</strong>s in winter <strong>climate</strong>, including increasing temperatures and <strong>change</strong>s in precipitation could mean incrementally larger water use during the winter. Winter is historically a time when the region has a respite from the intense summer heat, water use drops, and crop irrigation and production is most substantial. Because the bulk of these demands are consumptive and driven by <strong>climate</strong>, opportunities for reuse are small and <strong>climate</strong> variability and <strong>change</strong> could increase the consumptive demands of these uses. This brings into question the long-term sustainability of these water supplies and how future water demands will be met. Utilizing water resources decision support tools, this study focuses on quantification of potential future water stress in the region by combining <strong>climate</strong> model outputs, projected water budgets, and socioeconomic information. The country's existing climatic context has already demanded innovation in how water resources are managed. A baseline water demand modeling framework is developed for the Abu Dhabi Environment Agency that could be used to assess future demand and supply requirements, and look at the overall sustainability of the sector under future stressors, including population, economic growth, and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Program like the GTZ and Groundwater Assessment Project developed comprehensive inventory and database of the groundwater resources throughout Abu Dhabi. This project relies on these databases, by making an ADE-wide water supply and demand model that harvests these data held at the Environment Agency of Abu Dhabi (EAD). A Water supply/demand model was built using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) decision support system, and this used to assess potential <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impact and adaptation options for the ADE. We have found that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> would have a marginal impact on water resources relative to the bigger socio-economic drivers of percapita demand, assumptions about future populations, and future agriculture and forestry policies that would either limit or encourage irrigation of these sectors. While this is a report about the impacts and vulnerability for the water sector with respect to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, supply is uninfluenced by <strong>climate</strong> (given limited recharge and even more restricted rainfall) so primary adaptation strategies fall to demandside management. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi 79
Page 2 and 3:
Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6:
Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8:
Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9:
9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14:
APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16:
Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18:
2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20:
differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22:
Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24:
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 37 and 38: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
Page 101 and 102: and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106: including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130:
Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132:
Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134:
Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136:
Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
139
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146:
2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148:
4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
Page 149 and 150:
Peninsula in the north to close to
Page 151 and 152:
5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154:
over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156:
6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158:
include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160:
(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162:
camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164:
8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Alternatively, established shrublan
Page 171 and 172:
e functionally deficient. We projec
Page 173 and 174:
Adaptation can be planned or it can
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
is based on a theoretical understan
Page 179 and 180:
species to adapt to a changing <str
Page 181 and 182:
that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 183 and 184:
10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
Page 185 and 186:
Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
Page 187 and 188:
Annex 2: Expected effects of global
Page 189 and 190:
Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
Page 191 and 192:
Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 193 and 194:
Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 195 and 196:
Name of species/sub-species Habitat
Page 197:
Annex 8: Native species list of ter
Page 200 and 201:
The cover picture represents a Brid
show all

climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?