climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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Temperature Change (degrees C) by 2050. Rainfall Change (%) Figure 3-6. Maximum and minimum projected temperature and rainfall <strong>change</strong>. (UAE, 2006) GCM outputs illustrated in Figure 3-6 show that temperatures are projected to be between about 1.6ºC and 2.9ºC warmer in 2050 than they were over the period 1961-90, and between 2.3ºC and 5.9ºC warmer than this baseline period by 2100. The precipitation projections, however, are more varied. Some models project a dryer region with decreasing precipitation, while others project a wetter region with a significant increase in precipitation. Figure ‎3‐8 in Section 3.5 conveys the projection of rainfall in 2050 to be between 20% less to 10% more than has occurred over the period 1961-90, and between 45% less to 22% more by 2100. Additionally, the IPCC notes an increasing trend in the extreme events observed during the last 50 years, particularly heavy precipitation events, hot days, hot nights and heat waves. Projections indicate this trend will continue, if not worsen. 3.4. Temperature Increase and diminished surface water Reserves Projected <strong>change</strong>s in monthly temperature vary widely across the various GCMs, Scenarios considered, and cities within the UAE. Average monthly temperatures in 2050 will be warmer than they were for the corresponding months over the period 1961-90:- from 1.6ºC in January to about 2.5ºC in September (Figure ‎3‐8). Similarly, for 2100, increases in average monthly temperature could range from about 3.3ºC in February to about 4.5ºC in October (again, relative to the corresponding monthly average over the 1961-90 baseline periods). Temperature strongly influences the amount of evaporation in an area. In hot, dry <strong>climate</strong> evaporation of irrigation water is a serious problem whether from the soil, plant leaves or other wet surfaces. Improving irrigation efficiency allows farmers to avoid severe water loss. The key is custom-designed strategies to get more output and benefit from water by creating a best-fit technology linked to local <strong>climate</strong>, hydrology, water use patterns, environmental conditions, and other relevant characteristics. 3.5. Increased monthly precipitation variability Rainfall within Abu Dhabi Emirate is erratic both in time and space. Rainfall provides water for runoff, which eventually results in aquifer recharge, especially in the eastern regions where numerous wadi systems cross over the border from Oman to provide preferential pathways for percolation and recharge. This recharge water is important, however, it only contributes, on average, 4 % annually to the Emirate’s total water consumption. Even so, <strong>change</strong>s in precipitation patterns threaten to eliminate even that small contribution to Emirate water supply. Precipitation projections show even greater variation than temperature. Some models project a dryer region with decreasing precipitation, while others project a wetter region with a significant increase in precipitation. As illustrated in Figure ‎3‐8, average monthly rainfall in 2050 is projected to range between 8% less in April to about 45% more than these corresponding months over the period 1961-90. For 2100, average monthly rainfall <strong>change</strong>s are projected to range between 15% less in June to about 88% more in September, relative to the 1961-90 baseline period. Mean annual rainfall for the western region of the Emirate is less than 50 mm/yr and for the eastern region, varies between 80-100 mm/yr. An estimate of 100 mm/yr has been shown to be required in order to activate sufficient runoff to 96 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Temperature Change (degrees C) Temperature Change (degrees C) Figure ‎3‐7. Projected monthly temperature <strong>change</strong>, 2050 and 2100. (UAE, 2006) Rainfall Change (%) Rainfall Change (%) Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi Figure ‎3‐8. Projected monthly rainfall <strong>change</strong>, 2050 and 2100. (UAE, 2006) cause aquifer recharge (Dincer, 1974; Faloci & Notarnicola, 1993). 3.6. Rainfall variability and flash flooding Some years, there is no rain at all, and in others, rain occurring on only a few days in the year can total more than three times the long term annual average and have a very significant impact on restoring groundwater levels (ADEA, 2002). Groundwater systems are controlled by recharge processes, the geology of the host rocks, and residence time of groundwater and discharge processes. The resultant groundwater quality is largely influenced by groundwater residence time and type of recharge process, and in more recent times, by anthropogenic 97
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 95: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
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Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106: including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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