climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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managing for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impacts in the United Arab Emirates is to employ the data collection, assessment, management, and monitoring techniques of the adaptive management framework (see Franklin et al., 2007). While not directing a specific course of action, the framework asks for concerned stakeholders to first and foremost identify the goal of both ecosystem study and management, and create a monitoring and assessment system such that both current and future managers can learn from both successes and inevitable failures as the goal is pursued. Development of baseline datasets In nearly every circumstance, unless the only goal of ecosystem management is to create an aesthetically pleasing environment, it is critical to lay a foundation of data and basic environmental science in the region. To date, there are few enviromental studies available regarding the UAE’s ecosystems, which means that there is little substrate to develop well informed management practices. State agencies have compiled diversity surveys, but there are few comprehensive sources describing such fundamentals as biogeography, species abundance, or biodiversity hotspots. Basic informative and widely accessible datasets would ideally include: Species or community maps of ecosystems throughout the UAE and surrounding regions, in a georeferenced digital form; Biogeographical surveys describing dominant biomes in the UAE and their basic structures, functions, and vulnerabilities; Climatic maps and datasets, indicating patterns of precipitation and seasonal temperatures; Soils and groundwater assessments to map surface features and plant-available moisture and groundwater; Topographic maps; Important migratory routes; Land use maps indicating urban and urbanzoned areas, agricultural regions, reserves and parks. Development of essential environmental studies From this initial literature survey, it is unclear what, if any, threat <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> poses to the dryland ecosystems of the United Arab Emirates. It is apparent that land use practices, invasive species, intensive grazing, and groundwater extraction may pose a more immediate danger, but the relative magnitudes of these natural and anthropogenic disturbances are unclear. The UAE would benefit from a significant investment in basic ecosystem and <strong>climate</strong> studies to better understand the various components of <strong>change</strong> in the region. Potential studies could include: Expected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the biomes of the UAE at a fine spatial scale as well as model and data uncertainties; Which factors determine biogeographical boundaries in the UAE; The impact of grazing pressures on groundwater, soil moisture, and ecosystem structure; Expected land use <strong>change</strong>s and urban development over the next decades, and the effect of various land use practices on landscape health, biodiversity, and species abundance; How vegetation responds to interannual variability in the UAE’s <strong>climate</strong>; How migratory species respond to interannual variability in the UAE’s <strong>climate</strong>; The UAE sits at a the confluence of three distinctly different ecoregions. With floral and faunal influences from Africa, East Asia, and the Middle East, the UAE and the Arabian peninsula harbor a unique biodiversity and critical habitats. There is a potential to understand this relatively poorly characterized landscape, to learn about what may be in store for arid regions of the world. 182 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, WK Lauenroth. (2001). The effect of grazing on the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation. Oecologia. 128:465-479. African Development Bank (AfDB) et al, (2003). Poverty and Climate Change. Aguar, M, Sala. (1999). Patch structure, dynamics and implications for the functioning of arid ecosystems. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 14:7:273-277. Anderies, J, Janssen, M., Walker (2002). Grazing Management, Resilience, and the Dynamics of a Fire-driven Rangeland System. Ecosystems. 5:23-44. Andrea, S. (2006) Ecology, Culture, and Nature’s Distressed Equilibrium - Desertification in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States of the Arabian Peninsula.-, University of Hamburg, Alter Postweg 116a, Seevetal, 21220, Germany Araújo, M. Pearson, R. Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. (2005) Validation of species-<strong>climate</strong> impact models under <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Global Change Biology, 11: 1504-1513. Arnell, N (1999). Climate <strong>change</strong> and global water resources. Global Environmental Change. 9:S31:49 Aspinall, S. (n.d) Environmental Development and Protection in the UAE. Available online: http://www.uaeinteract.com/uaeint_misc/pdf/ perspectives/14.pdf Aspinall, S. 1996. Status and conservation of the breeding birds of the United Arab Emirates. Hobby, Liverpool and Dubai. Aspinall, S.J. Status and Conservation of the Breeding Birds of the United Arab Emirates, Dubai, Hobby (1996a). P. Aspinall, S.J. ‘Time for a protected area network in the UAE’, Tribulus 6/1 (1996b) pp 5–9. Balmford, A RE Green, M Jenkins, (2003). Measuring the changing state of nature. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 18:7:326. Beaumont, L, McAllan, I Hughes, (2006). A matter of timing: <strong>change</strong>s in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds. Global Change Biology. 12:1339-1354. Boer, B. (1997). An introduction to the <strong>climate</strong> of the United Arab Emirates. Journal of Arid Environments 35:3-16. Boer, B.B. (1999). Ecosystems, Anthropogenic Impacts and Habitat Management Techniques in Abu Dhabi, Germany, University of Paderborn Böer, B.B., Drew, C.R., Gliddon, D.J, Loughland, R.A, Pearson, W. & Schmidt, J.A. (1999). Proposed Protected Areas in Abu Dhabi Emirate - A report on preliminary results, evaluations and recommendations. ERWDA, Abu Dhabi. Bou-Zeid, E, M El-Fadel. (2002). Climate <strong>change</strong> and water resources in Lebanon and the Middle East. Journal of Water Resources. 128:343-355. Bradley, B.A., and J.F. Mustard. (2006). Characterizing the Landscape Dynamics of an Invasive Plant and Risk of Invasion Using Remote Sensing. Ecological Applications. 16:3:1132-1147 Bradley, BA, DS Wilcove. (2008). When invasive plants disappear: transformative restoration possibilities in the western United States resulting from <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. In press, Restoration Ecology (http://www.princeton. edu/~bethanyb/) Briske, DD, SD Fuhlendorf and FE Smeins. (2006). Unified Framework for Assessment and Application of Ecological Thresholds. Rangeland Ecology Management. 59:225-236 Brook, M, M Dawoud, H Al Houqani. (2005). The Opportunities for Water Resources Management in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. White paper: Environment Research and Wildlife Development Agency Brown G. & Sakkir S. (2004) The vascular plants of Abu Dhabi Emirate/ Terrestrial Environment Research Centre Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, T. Doyle. (2005). Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic <strong>change</strong>: Case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2:357-394. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Dryland Ecosystems in Abu Dhabi 183
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
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as well as parts of the Industrial
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up to help to assess technology nee
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framework that has relevance to the
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to be estimated reliably and hence
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
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8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
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To calculate areas inundated by lan
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Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
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Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
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4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
Page 137 and 138: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Page 151 and 152: 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154: over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156: 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158: include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160: (Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162: camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164: 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
Page 169 and 170: Alternatively, established shrublan
Page 171 and 172: e functionally deficient. We projec
Page 173 and 174: Adaptation can be planned or it can
Page 177 and 178: is based on a theoretical understan
Page 179 and 180: species to adapt to a changing <str
Page 181: that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 185 and 186: Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
Page 187 and 188: Annex 2: Expected effects of global
Page 189 and 190: Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
Page 191 and 192: Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 193 and 194: Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 195 and 196: Name of species/sub-species Habitat
Page 197: Annex 8: Native species list of ter
Page 200 and 201: The cover picture represents a Brid
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