climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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plans. If the planet were to reach any kind of global tipping point, whether from quickened ice-sheet melt, or high concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere and ocean warming both we could start to witness the abrupt disruption of local (and previously somewhat predictable) weather patterns and coastal dynamics. The uncertainty of ‘when’ and ‘to what extent’ are we really vulnerable placates many into a ‘wait and see’ mentality—trending towards a “Ride it out” or “Build Your Way Out” Adaptation Strategy (use Table 5-1). As has been experienced time and time again in many places across the world, Ride it Out may no longer be an option. Build Your Way Out may an option for those with sufficient resources it is not a viable long-term response. The UAE can continue to lead by example on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> by choosing the “Green” adaptation strategy, a strategic response that calls for proactive and innovative thinking, and a coordinated effort across ministries and sectors. 58 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
7. List of References ADEA (2006) “Marine and Coastal Environment Sector Paper.” Dhabi Environment Agency Alley, R, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W, Overpeck, J, Peteet, D, Pielke, R, Pierrehumbert, R, Rhines, P, Stocker, T, Talley, L, Wallace, J (2003) Abrupt Climate Change. Science 299:2005–2010 Aspinall, S. (n.d) Environmental Development and Protection in the UAE. Available online: http://www.uaeinteract.com/uaeint_misc/pdf/ perspectives/14.pdf Bell, R. (2008) “Unquiet Ice Speaks Volumes on Global Warming.” Scientific American. Available online: http://www.sciam.com/article.cfmid=theunquiet-ice. Bindoff, N.L., J. Willebrand, V. Artale, A, Cazenave, J. Gregory, S. Gulev, K. Hanawa, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, Y. Nojiri, C.K. Shum, L.D.Talley and A. Unnikrishnan (2007) “Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S.,D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Boon, J. “TCTutorial - a tutorial for understanding, measuring and predicting Tides and Currents.” Virginia Institute of Marine Science. Available online: http://www.vims.edu/physical/research/ TCTutorial/tideanalysis.htm; http://www.vims. edu/physical/pdfs/tide_next_time.pdf Brown, I. (2005). “Modelling future landscape <strong>change</strong> on coastal floodplains using a rule-based GIS.” Environmental Modelling & Software 21(10) pp. 1479-1490. Available online: doi:10.1016/j. envsoft.2005.07.011 Cartwright, A. (2008) SEI Project Report: “Global Climate Change and Adaptation. A Sea-Level Rise Risk Assessment for Cape Town “ (unpublished). CReSIS (Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets), (2008). Sea Level Rise Maps and GIS Data. Retrieved 28 February 2008 from: https:// www.cresis.ku.edu/research/data/sea_level_rise/ index.html Eakin, H. (2008) “Human vulnerability to global environmental <strong>change</strong>.” Available online, http:// www.eoearth.org/article/Human_vulnerability_to_ global_environmental_<strong>change</strong> (Encyclopedia of the Earth). El-Sabh, M. and T. Murty (1989) “Storm Surges in the Arabian Gulf.” Natural Hazards 1 pp. 371-385. Elsner et al. (2008) “The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones.” Nature 455 (4) pp. 92- 95. Elsner et al. (2008) “The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones.” Nature, 455 pp.92-95. Available online: http://www.nature.com/nature/ journal/v455/n7209/full/nature07234.html. Emery and Aubrey (1991). Sea Levels, Land Levels, and Tide Gauges. Springer-Verlag. EPA, Washington, DC. Available online: http:// www.epa.gov/<strong>climate</strong><strong>change</strong>/effects/downloads/ section3_20.pdf. Fadlallah, Y. H., K. W. Allen, and R. A. Estudio. (2004) “Mortality of shallow reef corals in the western Arabian Gulf following aerial exposure in winter,” Coral Reefs 14 (2) pp. 99-107. Available online: http://www.springerlink.com/content/ w017186h43672160/ Farraj, A. (2005) “An evolutionary model for sabkha development on the north coast of the UAE.“ Journal of Arid Environments 63(4) pp.740-755. Available online: doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.01.025 Federal Environment Agency, 2002. Fraczek, W. (2003) “Mean Sea Level, GPS, and the Geoid” Available online: http://www.esri.com/ news/arcuser/0703/geoid1of3.html Fujairah Marine Services and Trading, Ltd. “Mubarek Terminal, United Arab Emirates” Available online: http://www.infomarine.gr/uae/ Mubarek/index.html George & John, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2005b Gornitz, V. (2007) “Sea Level Rise, After the Ice Melted and Today.” Available online: http://www. giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/ Goudie, A. et al. (2000) “Coastal Change in Ras Al Khaimah (United Arab Emirates): A Cartographic Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates 59
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9: 9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
Page 101 and 102: and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106: including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
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Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
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Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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139
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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