climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

for the Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios
with Adaptation (1.2 and 2.2, respectively).
Both Scenarios suggest substantial unmet
demand for the M&I sector, which can be
used to quantify the amount of desalinization
capacity that would be necessary to meet future
demands. These Scenarios imply a need for
additional desalinization capacity of more than
5,000 Mm3 and 1,000 Mm3 for the pessimistic
and optimistic Scenarios, respectively.
Unmet demand in the amenity sector drops
to near zero after 2016 in response to the
reductions in summer-time irrigation and
reductions in planted area. While there is less
shortage in the agriculture and forestry sector,
demands still go unmet. Renewable freshwater
resources in the eastern portion of the ADE are
simply not substantial enough to be considered
a major contributor to the current or future
water resource portfolio on the ADE. The only
way to continue to supply irrigation water to
the agriculture and forestry sector at current
levels would be to increase the use of more
saline groundwater or perhaps bank unused,
desalinized water that would normally be
wasted to the ocean in an aquifer storage and
recovery (ASR) scheme in well suited alluvial
deposits interspersed throughout the ADE.
5.3. Groundwater Supplies
In the WEAP model it is necessary to define the
initial storage state of each of our aquifers at the
start of the simulations. We have represented
the alluvial fresh and brackish aquitards of
both the eastern and western regions, and it is
our understanding that different organization
and research groups over the years have drawn
different conclusions regarding the available
volume of fresh and brackish groundwater. No
one debates, however, that the groundwater
being used, whether fresh or brackish is
effectively being mined as there is no substantial,
modern-day recharge of the groundwater
systems of the ADE except for a small amount
in the extreme eastern region, as groundwater
throughflow from the Oman Mountains. Brooks
et al reported a mean annual total of 31 Mm³/yr
estimate of groundwater entering the Emirate
as groundwater, with the largest contribution
occurring within Wadi Dank catchment,
benefiting the area around Al Quaa. Recall that
the current water demand for the ADE is more
than 3000 Mm3/yr, so only about 1% of current
demand is supplied with a “renewable” supply.
Our analysis has assumed that for the year 2002,
there is about 350 Bm3 of brackish and fresh
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for
Water Resources in Abu Dhabi
Total Fresh and Brackish GW Storage
Figure ‎5‐5. Fresh and brackish groundwater storage over the study horizon for all three Optimistic
Scenarios.
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