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A noteworthy concern is that emissions abatement will not necessarily prevent ice sheets from collapsing; uncertainty remains on whether emissions reductions now may be too little or too late to reverse the trend of ice sheet melts. The policy importance of adequately planning for the worst case scenario will be discussed in greater detail in Section 5. 2.2. Eustatic sea level rise from deglaciation The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) estimates of global sea-level rise by 2100 do not include ice-sheet dynamics, however the continued melt of certain glacial types will yield eustatic sea level rise, or rise corresponding to a <strong>change</strong> in ocean volume. Floating ice, like what is found in the Northern Polar regions will not affect sea level if it melts because when it melts it will displace and equivalent volume of water. Continental ice sheets, however, are more worrisome. According to marine geophysicist Robin Bell of Columbia University’s Earth Institute, sea levels rise by about 1/16 inches for every 150 cubic miles of ice that melts off one of the poles (Bell, 2008). Scientists are concerned that the rate of glacial melt/ is far outstripping the rate of snow accumulation This phenomenon and melt accumulate imbalance can be seen visually in Figure ‎2‐4. Scientists hypothesize that during the previous interglacial period when the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapsed; sea level was 6/meters higher than at present (Emery and Aubrey, 1991). In both Kasperson et al. (2005) and Tol Continental ice caps an Snow Evaporation Decrease in ice volume raises sea level New sea level Figure ‎2-4. How glacial melt raises sea levels in the context of the water cycle. Figure ‎2‐5. Historical, cumulative contribution of deglaciation to sea levels. Source (IPCC, 2007). et al. (2006), the primary driver of rapid SLR was the potential collapse of the WAIS. Rising global temperatures could trigger an irreversible breakdown of ice sheets. If the WAIS were to disappear again, sea level would rise most 19 feet. Additionally, the ice in the Greenland ice sheet could add 24 feet to that, the East Antarctic ice sheet could add yet another 170 feet to the level of the world’s oceans, totaling more than 213 feet in all (Bell, 2008). In Figure 2-5 we see the cumulative contribution of continental glaciers and icecaps to the sea-level rise since 1960, expressed in mm (right axis) and grouped by major zone. For example, melting of Alaska glaciers have contributed to a rise in the world sea level by roughly 6.5 mm since 1960 (IPCC, 2007). Glacial melt is directly related to ambient air temperature and warming trends; a global temperature rise of 2-5°C could destabilize Greenland irreversibly. Even though such a temperature rise lies within the range of several future <strong>climate</strong> projections for the 21st century, any significant meltdown would take many centuries. 20 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure ‎2‐6. Global sea level <strong>change</strong> due to thermal expansion for 1995 to 2003 Source: IPCC, 2007. Climate stabilization could mitigate ice sheet breakdown, but sea level rise due to thermal expansion remains likely. Gornitz (2007) cautions against ignoring ice-sheet dynamics and notes the alarming <strong>change</strong>s that satellites have detected. Parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet at lower elevations are thinning, and glaciers are rapidly disgorging ice into the ocean, adding 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr to the sea within the last decade. Ice loss by glaciers in Greenland doubled between 1996 and 2005 (NASA, 2006). Small <strong>change</strong>s in glacial mass balance whether through accumulation from precipitation, ablation from evaporation, or the production and melt of ice bergs are influential in the global sea level budget. There remains, however, a great deal of uncertainty in the specific contribution of the mass balance of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (Pugh, 2004). The global mean sea level rise scenarios are based on thermal expansion and ice melt; the best estimate shows an acceleration of up to 2.4 times compared to the 20th century (see Meehl et al., 2007). For the IPCC A1B scenario, the spatial standard deviation by the 2080's is 0.08 meters (m), with a larger rise than average in the Arctic. While there is currently insufficient understanding to develop detailed scenarios, Hulme et al. (2002) suggested that impact analysis should explore additional sea-level rise scenarios of +50% the amount of global mean rise, plus uplift/subsidence, to assess the full range of possible <strong>change</strong>. Although this approach has been followed in the UK (Pearson et al., 2005; Thorne et al., 2006), its application elsewhere is limited to date. 2.3. Sea-surface temperatures, thermal expansion, and thermosteric sea level rise Thermosteric sea level rise is the component of the total sea level that results from thermal expansion of ocean waters, (the term steric is used when both thermal expansion and salinity effects are considered) (Berge-Nguyen et al., 2008). Thus sea-surface temperatures (SST) play a vital role in coastal dynamics with respect to the interplay between temperature and sea levels. Dissolved salt content also influences how oceans react to warming such that there are regional differences and delays in thermal expansion depending on a body of water’s particular salinity properties. Sea surface temperature <strong>change</strong>s the density and thus volume of the oceans. The heat capacity of the ocean is so large there will be a delay before the full effects of any global warming are evident. Warming atmospheric temperatures will continue to cause sea levels to rise far after any global greenhouse gas emissions and subsequent temperature stabilization scheme are reached. Any warming of the ocean, leads to an expansions of ocean volume and thus an increase in mean sea level (Pugh, 2004; IPCC, 2007; Hassanzadeh et al., 2007). Globally, the IPCC satellite altimetry time series show an overall trend of increasing heat content in the world oceans, allowing for some interannual and inter-decadal variations. Near-global ocean temperature data for the last 50 years has recently been made available, allowing for the first observationally-based estimate of the thermal expansion contribution to sea level rise in past decades. For the most recent years, the best estimates of the land-ice contribution to sea level are available from various observations of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Relying on these data sets, the Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) estimates that thermal expansion will contribute more than half of the average sea level rise; increases in sea surface temperatures could reach up to 3°C Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates 21
Page 2 and 3: Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6: Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9: 9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19: differences in observed sea levels
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
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4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
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Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
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Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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139
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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