climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

List of Tables
Page
Table ‎2‐1. Abu Dhabi Emirate groundwater reserves
estimate from GWAP (GTZ, 2005a)................................................................................................................................................... 81
Table 2‐2. Western Region potable water consumption from
Mirfa and Sila desalination plants.(2003)................................................................................................................................ 81
Table 2-3. Total water consumption in Abu Dhabi for the year 2003 ............................................................................... 84
Table 3‐1. Summary of GCM outputs for Abu Dhabi ............................................................................................................................. 93
Table 3‐2. Shwaib diversion structure .......................................................................................................................................................................... 98
Table 4‐1. Irrigated Ha from GIS layers ..................................................................................................................................................................... 103
Table 4‐2. Municipal and industrial water demand, 2003 .................................................................................................................. 105
Table 4‐3. Total supplies represented by the WEAP model ........................................................................................................... 106
Table 4‐4. Irrigation coefficients for the five represented crops/plants. ......................................................................... 107
Table 4‐5. Comparison of historical estimated and WEAP modeled demands ............................................... 109
Table 4‐6. 5 GCM outputs projected maximum/minimum <strong>change</strong>s..................................................................................... 111
Table 4‐7. Summary of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s included in WEAP modeled scenarios................................................. 112
Table 4‐8. Summary of scenarios used in Abu Dhabi Emirate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> analysis ........................ 115
Table 6‐1. Adaptation options for water supply and demand ................................................................................................... 125
Table A1-1. Abu Dhabi Emirate groundwater reserves estimate from GWAP (GTZ, 2005a).......... 131
Table A1-2. Demand site assumptions......................................................................................................................................................................... 131
Table A1-3. Catchment site assumptions................................................................................................................................................................. 132
Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission scenario and 17 GCM options................................................................................. 135
Table A2-2. Emission scenarios and GCMs used for the UAE..................................................................................................... 135
Table A2-3. Annual average maximum <strong>change</strong>, 2050 and 2100................................................................................................... 138
Table A2-4. Annual average minimum <strong>change</strong>, 2050 and 2100.................................................................................................... 138
Table A2-5. Summary of GCM Output Range for Abu Dhabi..................................................................................................... 138
Table A2-6. Summary of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s included in WEAP modeled scenarios........................................... 138
List of Figures
Page
Figure 2‐1. Percentage of total supply ....................................................................................................................................................................... 81
Figure 2‐2. Regional divisions used with indications of irrigated areas, and Eastern
domestic well fields (Western domestic demand is met entirely
with desalination) ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 82
Figure 2‐3. Changes in groundwater levels at Al Ain over the last 4,500 years ................................................. 83
Figure 2-4.Summary of total sector consumption by region (2002).................................................................................. 84
Figure 2‐5. GDP and bulk per capita water use in Abu Dhabi ................................................................................................ 85
Figure 2‐6. Expansion and plateau of Abu Dhabi Citizens Farms, 1996-2005 .................................................... 87
Figure 3‐1. Global average temperature and CO 2 trends (Karl and Trenberth 2003) ........................... 89
Figure 3‐2. Relative radiative forcing attributable to human activities ..................................................................... 90
Figure 3‐3. Historic observed global average temperatures,
and projected global average temperatures based on
various projections of global CO 2 concentrations. ............................................................................................... 90
Figure 3‐4. Statistical summary of projected patterns of precipitation
<strong>change</strong> from multiple General Circulation Models for December,
January and February (left) and June, July, and August (right)........................................................ 92
Figure ‎ 3‐5a. Probability Density Function -b1_temp_2050_annual..................................................................................... 94
Figure ‎ 3‐5b. Probability Density Function -a1b_temp_2050_annual................................................................................ 94
Figure ‎ 3‐5c. Probability Density Function - b1_precip_2050_annual................................................................................ 95
Figure ‎ 3‐5d. Probability Density Function - a1b_precip_2050_annual............................................................................. 95
Figure 3‐6. Maximum and minimum projected temperature and rainfall <strong>change</strong> ....................................... 96
Figure 3‐7: Projected monthly temperature <strong>change</strong>, 2050 and 2100 ................................................................................ 97
Figure 3‐8: Projected monthly rainfall <strong>change</strong>, 2050 and 2100 .................................................................................................. 97
Figure 4‐1. A WEAP schematic of the Abu Dhabi Emirate .......................................................................................................... 103
Figure 4‐2. Eastern region supply and demand representation in WEAP................................................................ 106
Figure 4‐3. The directory tree in WEAP, suggesting the
data structure used to represent M&I demands
(‘Red Dots’) and Irrigation Demands (“Green Dots”) ................................................................................... 106
Figure 4‐4. Al Ain “average” monthly rainfall over the period 1994-2005 ................................................................ 108
Figure 4‐5. WEAP model estimates of total annual demand
(left axis) and potential evapotranspiration (solid line, right axis). ............................................. 110
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Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation