climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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1. Introduction Abu Dhabi is one of seven emirates that together comprise the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE has a total area of 83,600 km 2 (8,360,000 ha), with Abu Dhabi being the largest, occupying an area of 67,340 km 2 and representing 86.67% of the total UAE area. The UAE is situated in the Eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, between latitudes 22 degrees and 26.5 degrees north and longitudes 51 degrees and 56.5 degrees east. It is bounded by the Gulf of Oman to the East and the Persian Gulf to the North Sultanate of Oman and Saudi Arabia to the south, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the west. The <strong>climate</strong> of the UAE is characterized by high temperatures (up to 49˚C in July), high humidity and low rainfall. The average, annual rainfall in the mountain region (140-200 mm) and along the east coast (100-140 mm) is generally higher compared to the gravel plains (100-120 mm), with the west coast receiving the lowest average of less than 60 mm (Boer 1997). The population of the UAE has been growing very fast from 2.41 million in 1995 to 3.77 in 2000 (Ministry of Planning, 2005) The term drylands is used to define the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid and dry subhumid ecosystems. Aridity zones as mostly used in the scientific literature are derived from the area’s mean annual precipitation (p) and the mean potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. given as P/PET. This ratio is referred to as aridity index and is used to classify dry lands as hyper-arid (ratio less than 0.05), arid (0.05 to 0.20), semi-arid (0.20 to 0.50) and dry subhumid areas (0.50 to 0.65). Drylands are particularly vulnerable to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> because of their inherent fragility that makes small <strong>change</strong>s in temperature and rainfall patterns a serious threat to their biodiversity. According to the IIED (2008), dryland regions are expected to undergo significant <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s, but there is considerable variability and uncertainty in these estimates between different scenarios. The IPCC (2007), projected that dryland, particularly the deserts are going to become hotter and drier. Based on UNEP (2007), these <strong>change</strong>s are expected to impact plant life and productivity through changing growth conditions and increasing the risk of wildfires, which could <strong>change</strong> the species composition and decrease biodiversity. Drylands occupy some 40% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, extending over a variety of terrestrial biomes which are extremely heterogeneous with wide variations in topography, climatic, geological and biological conditions (MEA, 2005). They are found on all continents in both the northern and southern hemispheres and are home to more than 2 billion people or about one quarter of the earth’s population as well as many agricultural and wild crops centres of origin. They include important ecosystems rich with unique and diverse communities of animals and plants. Some dryland ecosystems are exposed to a range of climatic and non-climatic factors and stresses that threaten their existence such as drought and desertification, land degradation, pollution, competition with invasive species and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> (UNCCD, 1997). Inspite of the many variations between drylands in terms of level of aridity, elevation, geological and biological conditions, etc., they share many common characteristic including; the low and erratic precipitation and high diurnal temperature variability. Moreover, dryland species and ecosystems have generally developed distinct coping mechanisms to cope with the harsh climatic conditions (low and erratic rainfall and high temperature). People living in drylands, particularly rural communities, often rely on a combination of rain-fed agriculture, livestock raising and other income generating activities that are extremely vulnerable to the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impacts anticipated under most models. In some regions and due to the frequent and severe rainfall fluctuations soil formation and water supply have already reached unsustainable levels (IIED, 2008). Dryland people historically managed to maintain and sustain their livelihoods under the very difficult conditions of the drylands, by developing very unique coping strategies under both farming and pastoral systems. These systems are known by their instability and high resilience and are in harmony with the basic properties of drylands which used to support the continued practice of transhumance and of nomadism. Nomadic people adopt mobility and dispersion over wide grazing as coping mechanisms. Currently there is a greater appreciation of the efficiency of traditional pastoral systems based on mobility and the exploitation of extensive resources (Niamir-Fuller, 2000). 144 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
2. Potential risks to dryland ecosystems The predicted global <strong>climate</strong> warming resulting from the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to have profound impacts on global biodiversity at levels that may compromise the sustainability of human development on the planet. Species and ecosystems prevailing in drylands are generally more resilient and have capacity to recover from the many stresses to which they are frequently exposed e.g. <strong>climate</strong> variability, drought, fires human-related pressures etc. (Edouard G, 2001). Inspite of this high adaptive capacity, but many studies have indicated that the on-going and projected climatic <strong>change</strong>s could have significant impacts on the drylands biodiversity and related ecosystems. Climate warming will cause, inter alia, higher evaporation rates and lower rainfall both of which are major determinants of dryland ecological processes (IPCC, 2007). Significant <strong>change</strong>s in precipitation patterns and in local or regional temperatures are expected to threaten dryland biodiversity. Simulation models of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> predict shifts in species distribution and reduced productivity in drylands. Each one-degree rise in temperature is expected to displace terrestrial species some 125 km towards the poles, or 150 meters in altitude. Simulation models by Sala and Chapin (2000) to assess biodiversity <strong>change</strong> over the next 100 years predict that dryland biomes such as savannahs, grasslands and Mediterranean ecosystems will be among the biomes experiencing the largest biodiversity <strong>change</strong>, and will be affected significantly by a combination of land use <strong>change</strong> and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Drylands are currently witnessing the combined impacts of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and human induced pressures. According to the UNCCD (2005b), seventy per cent of the world’s drylands, including arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, are degraded, directly affecting more than 250 million people and placing 1 billion people at risk. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment has also noted that the projected impacts of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on biodiversity across all ecosystems will increase very rapidly (MEA, 2005). The MEA report also indicated that many factors could interact to increase the impacts on dry land with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> being a major factor capable of increasing drylands vulnerability significantly. In an assessment of 29,000 observed <strong>change</strong>s in terrestrial biological systems, more than 89 percent of the significant <strong>change</strong>s were consistent with the direction of <strong>change</strong> expected as a response to global warming (IIED, 2008). The IPCC (2007) stated that, among the most significant observed <strong>change</strong>s in drylands is; an increased extinction risk for 20–30 percent of plants and animals (5 out of 10 chance), and major <strong>change</strong>s in ecosystem structure and function, (8 out of 10 chance). A recent study suggest that 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s expected by 2050 (Nature, 2004). Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Dryland Ecosystems in Abu Dhabi 145
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
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as well as parts of the Industrial
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up to help to assess technology nee
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framework that has relevance to the
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to be estimated reliably and hence
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
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8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
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To calculate areas inundated by lan
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Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
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Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 95 and 96: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
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Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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Page 143: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Page 151 and 152: 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154: over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156: 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158: include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160: (Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162: camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164: 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Page 171 and 172: e functionally deficient. We projec
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Page 181 and 182: that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 183 and 184: 10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
Page 185 and 186: Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
Page 187 and 188: Annex 2: Expected effects of global
Page 189 and 190: Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
Page 191 and 192: Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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