climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table of Contents (Part 3) Dryland Ecosystems in Abu Dhabi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 143 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 143 List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 143 Page 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 144 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosystems .................................................................................................................................................................. 145 3. Terrestrial ecosystems of the UAE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 146 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in Abu Dhabi .................................................................................................................................................. 147 4.1. Coastal Zones .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 147 4.2. Coastal and Inland Sabkhat ................................................................................................................................................................................ 147 4.3. Sand Sheets and Dunes ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 148 4.4. Piedmont Alluvial and Interdunal Plains .......................................................................................................................................... 148 4.5. Mountains and Wadis ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 148 4.6. Freshwater Habitats and Oases ..................................................................................................................................................................... 150 4.7. Urban Environments ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 150 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 151 5.1. Mangroves ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 151 5.2. Mountain and Jebel vegetation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 152 5.3. Wadi beds vegetation ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 153 5.4. Flora of the oases ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 154 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosystems in Abu Dhabi .............................................................................................................................. 155 6.1 Birds ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 155 6.2. Threatened bird species ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 156 6.3. Mammals ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 157 6.4. Reptiles .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 157 7. Vulnerability assessment of drylands ecosystems ............................................................................................................................. 158 7.1. Observed Climatic <strong>change</strong>s in dryland ecosystems ............................................................................................................ 158 7.2. Projected climatic <strong>change</strong>s in dry land ecosystems ............................................................................................................ 158 7.3. Current <strong>climate</strong> and expected climatic <strong>change</strong> in the UAE ..................................................................................... 158 7.4. Vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems of Abu Dhabi ........................................................................................................ 159 Overgrazing ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 160 Desertification and land degradation ............................................................................................................................................. 161 Other factors ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 162 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem thresholds, and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>............................................................................................................ 163 8.1. Biodiversity and ecological thresholds .................................................................................................................................................. 164 8.2. Implications of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on UAE dryland ecosystems ................................................................................ 168 8.3. Examples of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced biodiversity thresholds in the UAE ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 169 Avian migration and phenological <strong>change</strong> ............................................................................................................................... 169 Transitions between shrubs, grasses, invasives, and desert in savanna ecosystems ...................................................................................................................................................... 171 8.4. Adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in drylands ..................................................................................................................................... 172 Autonomous adaptation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 172 Autonomous adaptation by Fauna ..................................................................................................................................................... 173 Planned Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................................................................................................... 173 9. Modeling <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impacts in the UAE .......................................................................................................................................... 176 9.1. Ecosystem models: limited understanding, limitless possibilities ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 176 Empirical or first principles Top-down versus bottom-up models .................................................... 176 Model limitations ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 177 8 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
9.2. Types of ecosystem models ................................................................................................................................................................................... 177 First principles ecosystem models: potential vegetation and disturbance .......................................................................................................................................................................... 178 Bioclimatic envelope models ...................................................................................................................................................................... 178 Patch structure and spatial distribution models ........................................................................................................... 179 Climate / phenology models ......................................................................................................................................................................... 179 9.3. Examples of applied ecosystem models in arid environments ............................................................................. 180 Modeling for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impact assessment .......................................................................................................... 180 Modeling to understand vulnerabilities ....................................................................................................................................... 181 Modeling for adaptive management ................................................................................................................................................. 181 9.4. Next steps for modeling and data collection in the UAE ............................................................................................ 181 Development of baseline datasets ...................................................................................................................................................... 182 Development of essential environmental studies ........................................................................................................... 182 10. References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 183 Annex 1: Global vulnerable areas ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 186 Annex 2: Expected effects of global warming on Asia .......................................................................................................................... 187 Annex 3: Main urban settlements in dryland areas .................................................................................................................................. 188 Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem <strong>change</strong> ....................................................................................................................................................... 189 Annex 5: List of regular wintering and breeding water birds in the United Arab Emirates .................................................................................................................................... 190 Annex 6: Important flora of the UAE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 194 Annex 7: Recorded mammalian taxa occurring in UAE .................................................................................................................... 196 Annex 8: Native species list of terrestrial mammals of UAE .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 197 Page 9
Page 2 and 3: Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6: Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60:
7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62:
Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64:
8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66:
To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68:
Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70:
Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72:
Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73:
Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78:
Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80:
in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82:
Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84:
Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86:
Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88:
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89 and 90:
Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92:
The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94:
of topography on the region’s pre
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100:
neglected infrastructure, regional
Page 101 and 102:
and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
Page 103 and 104:
Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106:
including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108:
4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110:
Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112:
4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114:
Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116:
Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118:
5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120:
total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122:
for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124:
eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126:
Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128:
CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130:
Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132:
Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134:
Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136:
Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
139
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146:
2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148:
4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
Page 149 and 150:
Peninsula in the north to close to
Page 151 and 152:
5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154:
over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156:
6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158:
include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160:
(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162:
camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164:
8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Alternatively, established shrublan
Page 171 and 172:
e functionally deficient. We projec
Page 173 and 174:
Adaptation can be planned or it can
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
is based on a theoretical understan
Page 179 and 180:
species to adapt to a changing <str
Page 181 and 182:
that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 183 and 184:
10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
Page 185 and 186:
Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
Page 187 and 188:
Annex 2: Expected effects of global
Page 189 and 190:
Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
Page 191 and 192:
Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 193 and 194:
Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 195 and 196:
Name of species/sub-species Habitat
Page 197:
Annex 8: Native species list of ter
Page 200 and 201:
The cover picture represents a Brid
show all

climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?