climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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sedimentation and low winter temperatures (Shinn, 1976). Now, water temperatures in the Gulf exceed 33°C in summer, falling in winter to 16°C in the north and 22–24°C in the south (Chiffings 1994). Some level of resilience could be expected because reefs exist in this area of historic environment stressors such as extreme fluctuations in seawater temperature and high salinity (Kinsman, 1964; Sheppard, 1988; Sheppard & Sheppard, 1991) as well as frequent high turbidity. On the other hand, scientists warn that corals have probably reached their upper physiological temperature limit of the already well-adapted hermatypic corals forming the reefs of Abu Dhabi (EA). Already, there is evidence of the temperature sensitivity of coral because at the western extremity of the Abu Dhabi coastline the annual range of seawater temperatures is somewhat greater and consequently coral diversity is less (George & John, 1999, 2004, 2005b; John & George, 2001: Riegl, 2003). Riegel (2003) also explains that sea-level rise would have severe impacts on nearshore Arabian Gulf corals because so much of the southern shoreline is barely above sea level. While the effects of flooding remain unclear, researchers anticipate that coastal flooding could mobilize sediments and induce reef “switch offs” similar to flooded lagoons and drowned barrier reefs as seen in US Virgin Islands. Reefs would also be damaged from the extensive area of shallow sea created by flooding, these “seas” would be lethally heated and cooled by the Gulf’s temperature extremes (Loughland, 2005; Loughland and Sheppard, 2001, 2002; Riegl 2001, 2002, 2003). 3.5. Influence of sea level rise and sea surface temperature warming on coastal fauna. Many of the Emirate’s islands hold internationally important numbers of breeding seabirds and numbers of visiting shorebirds, nesting and feeding grounds of turtles, cetaceans (including both whales and dolphins) and dugong herds, Figure ‎3-3.Kingfish abundance vs. SST. 32 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
amongst others. Sea level rise may induce <strong>change</strong>s in turbidity, temperature and salinity that affect all of these flora and fauna. Any <strong>change</strong>s in ecosystem conditions could lead to improved conditions for diseases of plants and animals, as well as open areas to invasive species. The bathymetry of the Gulf is already quite shallow; sea level rise would extend these shallow coastal areas inland. The problem with shallower water is that it is more susceptible to strong heating and cooling, and density <strong>change</strong>s from evaporation, both of which negatively affect temperature sensitive species that had lived along the coast before <strong>change</strong>s forced migration. Much of the Abu Dhabi Emirate’s unique biodiversity is found in coastal ecosystems. The hawksbill turtles breed on more remote beaches, and dugongs are found in great numbers feeding on the seagrasses in more sheltered waters. Dugongs are already threatened internationally, mostly from drift nets and other man-made pressures. While UAE Federal Law protects them to an extent, sea level rise and changing in coastal water temperatures may negatively affect the habitats in which they thrive—notably the sea grass communities which are sensitive to both water depth and salinity. The abundance of some of the Emirate’s most important fisheries like kingfish are associated with these seasonal <strong>climate</strong> patterns, e.g. the extreme temperature fluctuation between the summer and winter months (see Figure 3-3). Depending on how ambient and sea surface temperatures <strong>change</strong> over time, kingfish and other similarly vulnerable populations will either need to migrate, adapt to new temperatures in their current habitat, or potentially become extinct. These options hold true across the board for both animal populations as well as populations of sea grasses and mangroves who may be able to adapt to slow paced <strong>change</strong> but ill equipped to handle abrupt sea level rise, particularly when coupled with existing anthropogenic pressures. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates 33
Page 2 and 3: Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6: Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9: 9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
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4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
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Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
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Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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139
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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