climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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Table of Contents (Part 3) Dryland Ecosystems in Abu Dhabi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 143 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 143 List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 143 Page 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 144 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosystems .................................................................................................................................................................. 145 3. Terrestrial ecosystems of the UAE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 146 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in Abu Dhabi .................................................................................................................................................. 147 4.1. Coastal Zones .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 147 4.2. Coastal and Inland Sabkhat ................................................................................................................................................................................ 147 4.3. Sand Sheets and Dunes ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 148 4.4. Piedmont Alluvial and Interdunal Plains .......................................................................................................................................... 148 4.5. Mountains and Wadis ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 148 4.6. Freshwater Habitats and Oases ..................................................................................................................................................................... 150 4.7. Urban Environments ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 150 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 151 5.1. Mangroves ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 151 5.2. Mountain and Jebel vegetation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 152 5.3. Wadi beds vegetation ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 153 5.4. Flora of the oases ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 154 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosystems in Abu Dhabi .............................................................................................................................. 155 6.1 Birds ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 155 6.2. Threatened bird species ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 156 6.3. Mammals ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 157 6.4. Reptiles .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 157 7. Vulnerability assessment of drylands ecosystems ............................................................................................................................. 158 7.1. Observed Climatic <strong>change</strong>s in dryland ecosystems ............................................................................................................ 158 7.2. Projected climatic <strong>change</strong>s in dry land ecosystems ............................................................................................................ 158 7.3. Current <strong>climate</strong> and expected climatic <strong>change</strong> in the UAE ..................................................................................... 158 7.4. Vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems of Abu Dhabi ........................................................................................................ 159 Overgrazing ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 160 Desertification and land degradation ............................................................................................................................................. 161 Other factors ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 162 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem thresholds, and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>............................................................................................................ 163 8.1. Biodiversity and ecological thresholds .................................................................................................................................................. 164 8.2. Implications of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on UAE dryland ecosystems ................................................................................ 168 8.3. Examples of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced biodiversity thresholds in the UAE ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 169 Avian migration and phenological <strong>change</strong> ............................................................................................................................... 169 Transitions between shrubs, grasses, invasives, and desert in savanna ecosystems ...................................................................................................................................................... 171 8.4. Adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in drylands ..................................................................................................................................... 172 Autonomous adaptation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 172 Autonomous adaptation by Fauna ..................................................................................................................................................... 173 Planned Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................................................................................................... 173 9. Modeling <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impacts in the UAE .......................................................................................................................................... 176 9.1. Ecosystem models: limited understanding, limitless possibilities ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 176 Empirical or first principles Top-down versus bottom-up models .................................................... 176 Model limitations ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 177 8 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
9.2. Types of ecosystem models ................................................................................................................................................................................... 177 First principles ecosystem models: potential vegetation and disturbance .......................................................................................................................................................................... 178 Bioclimatic envelope models ...................................................................................................................................................................... 178 Patch structure and spatial distribution models ........................................................................................................... 179 Climate / phenology models ......................................................................................................................................................................... 179 9.3. Examples of applied ecosystem models in arid environments ............................................................................. 180 Modeling for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impact assessment .......................................................................................................... 180 Modeling to understand vulnerabilities ....................................................................................................................................... 181 Modeling for adaptive management ................................................................................................................................................. 181 9.4. Next steps for modeling and data collection in the UAE ............................................................................................ 181 Development of baseline datasets ...................................................................................................................................................... 182 Development of essential environmental studies ........................................................................................................... 182 10. References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 183 Annex 1: Global vulnerable areas ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 186 Annex 2: Expected effects of global warming on Asia .......................................................................................................................... 187 Annex 3: Main urban settlements in dryland areas .................................................................................................................................. 188 Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem <strong>change</strong> ....................................................................................................................................................... 189 Annex 5: List of regular wintering and breeding water birds in the United Arab Emirates .................................................................................................................................... 190 Annex 6: Important flora of the UAE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 194 Annex 7: Recorded mammalian taxa occurring in UAE .................................................................................................................... 196 Annex 8: Native species list of terrestrial mammals of UAE .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 197 Page 9
Page 2 and 3: Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6: Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60:
7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
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8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
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To calculate areas inundated by lan
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Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
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Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
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4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
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Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
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Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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139
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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