climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

More documents

Recommendations

Info

een divided by the Hadley Centre into three broad categories: (1) emissions uncertainty; (2) natural climatic variability; and (3) modeling uncertainty (UKCIP). Climate Impact Assessment: the practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial consequences of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on natural and human systems (IPCC). Impacts of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>: The effects of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: ♦ Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected <strong>change</strong> in <strong>climate</strong>, without considering adaptation. ♦ Residual impacts: the impacts of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> that would occur after adaptation. See also aggregate impacts, market impacts, and non-market impacts. Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2007) No-regrets adaptation measures: fail-safe adaptation options whose benefits, such as reduced energy costs and reduced emissions of local/regional pollutants equal or exceed their cost to society, excluding the benefits of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> mitigation. They are sometimes knows as “measures worth doing anyway”. For example an infrastructure no-regret option would increase the durability and longevity of a building to <strong>climate</strong> variability over time. (IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/<strong>climate</strong>-<strong>change</strong>s- 1995/2nd-assessment-synthesis.pdf) Sea-level rise: An increase in the mean level of the ocean. ♦ Eustatic sea-level rise is a <strong>change</strong> in global average sea level brought about by an increase in the volume of the world ocean. ♦ Relative sea-level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level subsidence. In areas subject to rapid land-level uplift, relative sea level can fall. (IPCC, 2007) Sensitivity: Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by <strong>climate</strong> variability or <strong>change</strong>. The effect may be direct (e.g., a <strong>change</strong> in crop yield in response to a <strong>change</strong> in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise) (IPCC, 2007). SRES: The storylines and associated population, GDP and emissions scenarios associated with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Naki enovi et al., 2000), and the resulting <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and sea-level rise scenarios. Four families of socio-economic scenario (A1, A2, B1 and B2) represent different world futures in two distinct dimensions: a focus on economic versus environmental concerns, and global versus regional development patterns (IPCC, 2007). Thermal expansion: In connection with sealevel rise, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level. (IPCC, 2007). Thermohaline circulation (THC): Largescale, density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused by differences in temperature and salinity. In the North Atlantic, the thermohaline circulation consists of warm surface water flowing northward and cold deepwater flowing southward, resulting in a net poleward transport of heat. The surface water sinks in highly restricted regions located in high latitudes. Also called meridional overturning circulation (MOC). (IPCC, 2007). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992, in New York, and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the <strong>climate</strong> system’. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I aim to return greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered in force in March 1994 (IPCC, 2007). Vulnerability: Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, including <strong>climate</strong> variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007). 64 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
To calculate areas inundated by land use category: Spatial Analyst Tool “Intersect” Floodfil Output File with Environment Agency’s landuse GIS layers + = Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates 65
Page 2 and 3:
Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6:
Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8:
Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9:
9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
Page 101 and 102: and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106: including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116:
Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118:
5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120:
total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122:
for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124:
eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126:
Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128:
CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130:
Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132:
Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134:
Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136:
Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
Page 137 and 138:
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 139 and 140:
139
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146:
2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148:
4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
Page 149 and 150:
Peninsula in the north to close to
Page 151 and 152:
5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154:
over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156:
6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158:
include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160:
(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162:
camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164:
8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Alternatively, established shrublan
Page 171 and 172:
e functionally deficient. We projec
Page 173 and 174:
Adaptation can be planned or it can
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
is based on a theoretical understan
Page 179 and 180:
species to adapt to a changing <str
Page 181 and 182:
that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 183 and 184:
10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
Page 185 and 186:
Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
Page 187 and 188:
Annex 2: Expected effects of global
Page 189 and 190:
Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
Page 191 and 192:
Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 193 and 194:
Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 195 and 196:
Name of species/sub-species Habitat
Page 197:
Annex 8: Native species list of ter
Page 200 and 201:
The cover picture represents a Brid
show all

climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?