climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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well as water demand and population growth, we developed three unique Scenarios that were analyzed as part of this study to establish a range of plausible, future water balance conditions throughout the ADE including: Optimistic - lower population growth rates, improved per capita demand, moderate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> Pessimistic - more warming and extreme <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, high population, not as successful per capita-use reductions Middle of the road - ‘business as usual’ growth rates with ‘expected’ or average <strong>climate</strong> projection In addition, we have developed and run five other Scenarios which tier off of the three baseline Scenarios, making assumptions about future adaptations to reduce water demand. The paragraphs below include descriptions of all the Scenarios that were created and analyzed as part of this study, as well as summaries in Table ‎4‐8, Page. 113. The Scenario drivers included assumptions about population growth (column 2), per capita demand (column 3), and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> (column 4), and a set of adaptation options (column 5). For the Optimistic Scenario (1), we have assumed that a high population growth rate of 8% per annum continues until 2015, with the rate decreasing to 4% through 2025 and then to 2% for the remainder of the study period. This Scenario assumes that conservation programs are successful and per capita water demand for domestic, industrial, and garden watering is reduced to 800 l/cap/day by 2010 and then to 700 l/c/day by 2012 according to stated policy objects, with this demand rate continuing through the end of the study period. Note that this still is an extraordinary per-capita rate. The <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> assumptions are shown in column 3, with a 1.7ºC warming through 2050 and a 10 increase in precipitation for the Optimistic Scenario. Many if not all of the Emirate’s water shortage issues are demand driven, so we have modeled adaptation strategies accordingly while operating in the context of possible <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s by 2050. For example, given that the amenity, forestry, and agriculture sectors are very water use intensive, the question of longterm sustainability of groundwater resources is critical. Current irrigation practices in these sectors suggest that non-renewable groundwater supplies could be pumped dry through the next few decades. Much of the adaptation strategies modeled include decreasing amenity area and summer watering (when evaporation and temperature are highest), decrease forestry and agricultural area, layered on top of different suggested population growth rates and per capita consumption rates. 4.8.1. The Optimistic Scenarios (1, 1.1, and 1.2) The Optimistic Scenarios embed lower population growth rates, more success in reducing per capita demand, and moderate future <strong>climate</strong> warming. The idea behind this Optimistic Scenario was to model stated policy objectives, optimistically assuming they will be successfully implemented, and then layering <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on top of those assumptions. Given the current rate of population growth and aggressive development policies, one could imagine a Scenario where population growth rates stay very high into the middle of the 21st century, but water conservation programs achieve some success in reducing per-capita demand, amenity water use is curtailed through fallowing of planted area and summer time irrigation is reduced as a strategy to just maintain green-space viability through the extreme summer heat. Reductions in agriculture and forestry water demand are achieved through reductions in planted area of 30% after 2015. Scenario 1.2 makes the same assumptions as Scenario 1.1, but without <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> to better illustrate the relative impact of <strong>climate</strong> on overall demand. 4.8.2. The Pessimistic Scenarios (2, 2.1, and 2.2) The Pessimistic Scenarios assume greater <strong>climate</strong> warming, high population growth rates, and marginally successful per capitause reductions. For the Pessimistic Scenario (2), it was assumed that population growth continues at a rate of 8% per annum until 2015, tapering off to 6% thereafter. This Scenario 114 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenarios used in Abu Dhabi Emirate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> analysis. Scenario Drivers Scenarios 1) Optimistic 2) Pessimistic 3) Middle of the Road (MOR) Annual Pop’n Growth Rate 1 8,4,2% hi to 2015 med to 2025 and low to 2050 8% to 2015, then 6% thereafter 8,6,4% hi to 2015 med to 2025 and low to 2050 Domestic Water Use (liters/cap/ day) 800 (by 2010) 700 (by 2012) [in line with stated policy objective] 1100 all years (behavior doesn>t <strong>change</strong>) 1100 to 2015; 900 from 2015 through 2020 then 800 through 2050 Climate Change (2050) + 1.7 o C over 1961-90 baseline, +10% precipitation over 1961-90 baseline + 2.7 o C over 1961-90 baseline decline -20% precipitation over 1961-90 baseline +2.2 o C over 1961-90 baseline +5% precipitation over 1961-90 baseline Adaptation Options None None None Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi 1.1) Optimistic + reductions in amenity, forestry and ag water use 8,4,2% hi to 2015 med to 2025 and low to 2050 800 (by 2010) 700 (by 2012) [in line with stated policy objective] + 1.7 o C over 1961-90 baseline, +10% precipitation over 1961-90 baseline Decrease amenity area and summer watering by 20%; decrease forestry and agricultural area by 30% after 2015 1.2) Optimistic with adaptation, no <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> 8,4,2% hi to 2015 med to 2025 and low to 2050 800 (by 2010) 700 (by 2012) [in line with stated policy objective] No warming No trend in precipitation Decrease amenity area and summer watering by 20%; decrease forestry and agricultural area by 30% after 2015 2.1) Pessimistic + Municipal Demand Management, reductions in amenity, forestry and ag water use 2 8% to 2015, then 6% thereafter 1100 to 2015; 900 from 2015 through 2020 then 800 through 2050 + 2.7 o C over 1961-90 baseline - 20% precipitation over 1961-90 baseline Decrease amenity area and summer watering by 20%; decrease forestry and agricultural area by 30% after 2015 2.2) Pessimistic with adaptation, no <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> 8% to 2015, then 6% thereafter 800 (by 2010) 700 (by 2012) No warming No trend in precipitation Decrease amenity area and summer watering by 20%; decrease forestry and agricultural area by 30% after 2015 3.1) MOR with no <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> Reference Scenarios 8,6,4% hi to 2015 med to 2025 and low to 2050 1100 to 2015; 900 from 2015 through 2020 then 800 through 2050 No warming No trend in precipitation None Notes * per-capita use is domestic, industrial, and outdoor uses by citizens. ** Per capita demands uses a factor of 2 to reflect industrial and outdoor uses. (e.g. 550 l/c/d * 2). *** "Domestic water us when modelled in line with stated policy objective is not considered an adaptation strategy except for Scenario 2.1 where pessimistic population growth is counter balanced by suggested per capita reductions" 115
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
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as well as parts of the Industrial
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up to help to assess technology nee
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framework that has relevance to the
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to be estimated reliably and hence
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Page 151 and 152: 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154: over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156: 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158: include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160: (Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162: camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164: 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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