climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

managing for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impacts in
the United Arab Emirates is to employ the
data collection, assessment, management,
and monitoring techniques of the adaptive
management framework (see Franklin et al.,
2007). While not directing a specific course
of action, the framework asks for concerned
stakeholders to first and foremost identify the
goal of both ecosystem study and management,
and create a monitoring and assessment system
such that both current and future managers
can learn from both successes and inevitable
failures as the goal is pursued.
Development of baseline datasets
In nearly every circumstance, unless the only
goal of ecosystem management is to create
an aesthetically pleasing environment, it is
critical to lay a foundation of data and basic
environmental science in the region. To date,
there are few enviromental studies available
regarding the UAE’s ecosystems, which
means that there is little substrate to develop
well informed management practices. State
agencies have compiled diversity surveys, but
there are few comprehensive sources describing
such fundamentals as biogeography, species
abundance, or biodiversity hotspots. Basic
informative and widely accessible datasets
would ideally include:
Species or community maps of ecosystems
throughout the UAE and surrounding regions,
in a georeferenced digital form;
Biogeographical surveys describing dominant
biomes in the UAE and their basic structures,
functions, and vulnerabilities;
Climatic maps and datasets, indicating
patterns of precipitation and seasonal
temperatures;
Soils and groundwater assessments to map
surface features and plant-available moisture
and groundwater;
Topographic maps;
Important migratory routes;
Land use maps indicating urban and urbanzoned
areas, agricultural regions, reserves
and parks.
Development of essential
environmental studies
From this initial literature survey, it is unclear
what, if any, threat <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> poses to the
dryland ecosystems of the United Arab Emirates.
It is apparent that land use practices, invasive
species, intensive grazing, and groundwater
extraction may pose a more immediate danger,
but the relative magnitudes of these natural and
anthropogenic disturbances are unclear. The
UAE would benefit from a significant investment
in basic ecosystem and <strong>climate</strong> studies to better
understand the various components of <strong>change</strong>
in the region. Potential studies could include:
Expected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the biomes of the
UAE at a fine spatial scale as well as model
and data uncertainties;
Which factors determine biogeographical
boundaries in the UAE;
The impact of grazing pressures on
groundwater, soil moisture, and ecosystem
structure;
Expected land use <strong>change</strong>s and urban
development over the next decades, and
the effect of various land use practices on
landscape health, biodiversity, and species
abundance;
How vegetation responds to interannual
variability in the UAE’s <strong>climate</strong>;
How migratory species respond to interannual
variability in the UAE’s <strong>climate</strong>;
The UAE sits at a the confluence of three
distinctly different ecoregions. With floral and
faunal influences from Africa, East Asia, and
the Middle East, the UAE and the Arabian
peninsula harbor a unique biodiversity and
critical habitats. There is a potential to
understand this relatively poorly characterized
landscape, to learn about what may be in store
for arid regions of the world.
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Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation