climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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Radiative Forcing Components Figure ‎3‐2 Relative radiative forcing attributable to human activities. (IPCC, 2007) Figure ‎3‐3. Historic observed global average temperatures, and projected global average temperatures based on various projections of global CO 2 concentrations. (IPCC, 2007) 90 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
The CO 2 storylines include both “green” centered trajectories that moderate fossil fuel use and fossil fuel intensive trajectories, leading to either low or high green house gas concentrations, respectively. These different emission pathways then imply different mean global and regional <strong>climate</strong> warming rates. The details of these Scenarios are beyond the scope of this report, but Figure ‎3‐3 summarizes the projected global average surface warming based on a consensus derived from several GCMs across a range of future projections (e.g. referred to ‘A2’, ‘A1B’, and ‘B1’ Scenarios, for details about the different Scenarios, see http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf). Note this figure includes a projected global average temperature if we were to keep CO 2 at 2000 concentration levels, suggesting that we are already committed to some additional warming beyond anything that has taken place already (IPCC 2007). The consequences of the projected future warming are likely to be <strong>change</strong>s in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and in the hydrologic cycle, leading to altered patterns of precipitation, groundwater recharge, and surface runoff. Warmer temperatures and even <strong>change</strong>s in other <strong>climate</strong> variables like wind and humidity, could lead to <strong>change</strong> in water demands for outdoor irrigation needs. Warmer temperatures, accompanied by increases in wind and lower humidity in the interior could lead to higher demands in the agricultural sector. Scientists agree on some of the important broad-scale features of the expected hydrologic <strong>change</strong>s, the most likely of which will be an increase in global average precipitation and evaporation as a direct consequence of warmer temperatures. That, however, does not mean that there will be more precipitation everywhere or that groundwater recharge would increase in proportion to precipitation, as other factors like <strong>change</strong>s in evaporation could overwhelm any increased precipitation. 3.2. Regional Climate Change At the regional scale, such as the ADE, there is high confidence in projections of future temperature <strong>change</strong>, with less confidence in projections of future precipitation <strong>change</strong> (Dai, 2006). Changes in circulation patterns will be critically important in determining <strong>change</strong>s in precipitation, and <strong>climate</strong> models can provide only a crude picture of how those patterns may <strong>change</strong>. The currently available evidence suggests that arctic and equatorial regions may become wetter, and that subtropical regions may experience drying. Projections of precipitation <strong>change</strong>s for mid-latitude regions such as the ADE are less consistent. In some places, there is stronger consensus among different <strong>climate</strong> models that gives rise to stronger ‘confidence’ in regional precipitation <strong>change</strong>s. For example, a recent report by Seager (2007) argues for an imminent transition to a drier <strong>climate</strong> in southwestern North America. He points out the consistency of <strong>climate</strong> models in producing a human-induced aridification caused by large scale <strong>change</strong>s in the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle, stating that “the subtropics are already dry because the mean flow of the atmosphere moves moisture out of these regions whereas the deep tropics and the higher latitudes are wet because the atmosphere converges moisture into those regions. As air warms it can hold more moisture and this existing pattern of the divergence and convergence of water vapor by the atmospheric flow intensifies. This makes dry areas drier and wet areas wetter.” Figure ‎3‐4 shows projected patterns of precipitation <strong>change</strong>. Note the general pattern of drier conditions in the mid-latitudes and desert regions, and wetting in the tropics and high latitudes (IPCC 2007). The dark stipples in this figure are places where there is consensus among models with regards to the direction of future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. So in the poles and some tropical regions, there is more stippling, suggesting more model agreement, suggesting the greater likelihood that the poles will get wetter and the mid-latitudes drier. Problematically for the ADE, Figure ‎3‐4 shows in white no stippling, suggesting no strong trend in precipitation (either wetter or driver) and thus little agreement among models. Thus, for the water resources sector of the ADE, a conservative assumption regarding future precipitation is that the near future will be like the recent past- very arid. Despite tremendous technological advances Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi 91
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
Page 101 and 102: and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
Page 105 and 106: including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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