climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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7 Vulnerability assessment of Drylands ecosystems This section will attempt to assess the vulnerability and impacts of drylands ecosystems with focus on Abu Dhabi emirates. It will present information on climatic <strong>change</strong>s, potential impacts and adaptation measures for the drylands ecosystems. 7.1. Observed Climatic <strong>change</strong>s in dryland ecosystems An assessment by the IPCC of long-term trends in precipitation amount over many large regions for the period 1900-2005, indicated that drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. The report has also indicated that more intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics (IPCC, 2007). These observations are linked to higher temperatures, decreased precipitation; <strong>change</strong>s in sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and decreased snow cover. More relevant to dryland regions is that areas affected by drought have and will continue to increase (IPCC, 2007). Little was reported in the IPCC Working Group 2 report regarding the observed impacts on crops and livestock in drylands or other developing country regions (Rosenzweig et al. 2007). A study had shown that very dry land areas across the globe (defined as areas with a PDSI of less than –3.0) have more than doubled in extent since the 1970s, and this was associated with an initial precipitation decrease over land related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and with subsequent increases primarily due to surface warming (IIED, 2008). 7.2 Projected climatic <strong>change</strong>s in dry land ecosystems The IPCC (2007) has left no doubt that global warming is occurring and that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is human-induced, concluding that “warming of the <strong>climate</strong> system is unequivocal” and stating with 90 percent confidence that the net effect of human activities on Earth since 1750 has been warming. The report emphasized the high uncertainties in prediction of arid ecosystem responses to elevated CO 2 and global warming. However, it projected a generalized warming of over 3ºC and a 100% increase in frequency of extremely warm years and the likely reduction in rainfall in Southern Africa, Sahara & Central Asia and likely increase in West Africa, East Africa and South Asia (IPCC, 2007). 7.3. Current <strong>climate</strong> and expected climatic <strong>change</strong> in the UAE The <strong>climate</strong> of the UAE is characterized by high temperatures (up to 49ºC in July), high humidity and low rainfall. The average annual rainfall in the mountain region (140-200 mm) and along the east coast (100-140 mm) is generally higher compared to the gravel plains (100-120 mm), with the west coast receiving the lowest average of less than 60mm (Boer, 1997). The IPCC groups the Saudi peninsula into the Asian division, a region expected to undergo a wide range of climatic <strong>change</strong>s over the next century. An assessment by the IPCC of trends in precipitation for the period extending from 1900- 2005 indicated that drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia, regions with similar <strong>climate</strong> characteristics to the peninsula. The IPCC reported that more intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics, but may have increased slightly in the Arabian Peninsula (IPCC, 2007). A recent consortium of <strong>climate</strong> scientists from the Middle East recently compiled a database of <strong>climate</strong> observations over the last half century, and reported that both maximum and minimum temperatures in the region have shown a statistically significant increase and the number days exceeding the 90 th percentile have increased throughout the region (Zhang et al., 2005). However, the report indicates that there have been no coherent trends in precipitation 158 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005). While these same conclusions are repeated throughout the literature, the most recent IPCC report indicates that there is relatively high uncertainty in expected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the Arabian peninsula (IPCC, 2007), and the region is rarely explicitly addressed in either models or the literature (i.e. Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel, 2002). For example, the IPCC report suggests that the Indian summer monsoon is very likely to increase in intensity over the Arabian Sea (IPCC, 2007), and that severe droughts are expected in the Mediterranean, but indicates that approximately half the models disagree on the direction of <strong>change</strong> for precipitation trends over the Arabian peninsula, and the UAE in particular (see Figure 7-2). It appears as if many of the models disagree if the shifts in <strong>climate</strong> over this region will be linked to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, or the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Africa, which show opposite directions of <strong>change</strong>. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Dryland Ecosystems in Abu Dhabi Figure 7-1: Expected <strong>change</strong>s in a) annual temperature and b) precipitation in the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999, ensemble average. Source: IPCC (2007) WG 1. Figure 7-2: Number of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> models in the IPCC report which indicate an increase in precipitation out of 21 independent models. Source: IPCC (2007) WG 1. patterns thoughout the region. Climate models project that the Arabian peninsula will experience increasing temperatures from 3-5ºC over the next century (see Figure 7-1a), and may possibly see decreases in its already low precipitation (see Figure 7-1b), leading to reduced runoff and water availability 7.4. Vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems of Abu Dhabi Vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in Abu Dhabi is a function of exposure to multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses. The fast development and land use <strong>change</strong> are identified among the major factors that have significantly impacted the natural systems. This section will consider the vulnerability to these different sources of stresses. Although most of the available national literature identify human interference as the major threat to biodiversity and dryland ecosystems in the Emirates, many other national and international assessment reports highlighted <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as a major threat to drylands ecosystems (IPCC, UNEP, IUCN, UNFCCC- NCs). UNEP, 2007 noted that small <strong>change</strong>s in temperature and rainfall patterns can have serious impacts on the biodiversity of dry and sub-humid lands and that rising temperature could increase the risk of wildfires, which could <strong>change</strong> the species composition and decrease biodiversity. In areas where water is a limiting factor, <strong>change</strong>s in rainfall patterns could have serious impacts on biodiversity as any <strong>change</strong>s 159
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
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as well as parts of the Industrial
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up to help to assess technology nee
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framework that has relevance to the
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to be estimated reliably and hence
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
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8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
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To calculate areas inundated by lan
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Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
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Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
Page 137 and 138: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
Page 149 and 150: Peninsula in the north to close to
Page 151 and 152: 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154: over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156: 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157: include the urban development and i
Page 161 and 162: camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164: 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
Page 169 and 170: Alternatively, established shrublan
Page 171 and 172: e functionally deficient. We projec
Page 173 and 174: Adaptation can be planned or it can
Page 177 and 178: is based on a theoretical understan
Page 179 and 180: species to adapt to a changing <str
Page 181 and 182: that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 183 and 184: 10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
Page 185 and 186: Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
Page 187 and 188: Annex 2: Expected effects of global
Page 189 and 190: Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
Page 191 and 192: Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 193 and 194: Sn Species Scientific name Family S
Page 195 and 196: Name of species/sub-species Habitat
Page 197: Annex 8: Native species list of ter
Page 200 and 201: The cover picture represents a Brid
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