climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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also assumes that conservation programs are mostly unsuccessful in reducing per-capita demand. The <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> assumptions include a nearly 2.7ºC warming by 2050 relative to the historic baseline, with the ADE becoming even more arid due to a 20% decline in annual average precipitation. Scenario 2.1 assumes the same adaptations as Scenario 1.1 (reductions in amenity and agricultural water use), but differs from the optimistic baseline Scenario implying greater reductions in domestic water use. Scenario 2.2 tiers off Scenario 2.1 but without <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> to illustrate the relative impact of <strong>climate</strong> on demand. 4.8.3. The Middle of the Road Scenarios (3) The Middle-of-the-Road (MOR) Scenario (3) assumes that population growth is high, but considerable measures are taken to reduce the recent high population growth, as rates quickly fall from 8% then 6% per annum, with a final rate of 4% through 2050. The <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> assumptions for the MOR Scenario include a 2.2ºC warming through 2050 and a 5% increase in annual precipitation relative to the 1961-90 baseline. Scenario 3.1 tiers off of Scenario 3, but assumes no warming in order to assess the relative impact of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on water demand (see further explanation in the Reference Scenario). 4.8.4. The Reference Scenario (3.1) To demonstrate the marginal impact that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has on water supply and demand relative to the other drivers of population growth, per-capita demand, and water use by the amenity, forestry, and agriculture sectors, Scenario 3.1 tiers off the MOR Scenario but assumes no future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. This final Scenario was also run, assuming no <strong>change</strong> in per-capita demand, no reductions in sectoral use, a continued population growth rate of 8%, and no <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. With no assumptions about future conditions considered and current patterns of use and population growth assumed, this was referred to as the ‘reference’ Scenario and suggests an extreme future total water demand condition. 116 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
5. Results and Discussion The <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> assumptions for the three main Scenarios are reflected in the previous section in Table ‎4‐8, column 3. To remind you, over the 1961-1990 baseline, the optimistic <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> Scenario models a 1.7ºC warming through 2050 and a 10 % increase in precipitation for the optimistic Scenario; the pessimistic Scenario models 2.7ºC warming through 2050 and a 20 % decrease in precipitation; while the middle of the road (MOR) scenario models 2.2 o C warming through 2050 and a 5% increase in precipitation. Many if not all of the Emirate’s water shortage issues are demand driven, so we have modeled adaptation strategies accordingly while operating in the context of possible <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s by 2050. 5.1. Water Demand Figure ‎5‐1 shows the total annual water demand projections for all Scenarios through the end of the simulation period (2050). The total water demand is computed as a requirement, but does not necessarily reflect the amount of water supplied to meet those demands. Total demand ranged from a low about 4,000 Mm 3 for the Optimistic Scenario with adaptation (2.1) to more than 18,000 Mm 3 for the Reference Scenario, where population growth, per-capita water use and amenity, forestry, and agriculture water use patterns remain at current levels through the full simulation period. While the Reference Scenario is highly unlikely, it does suggest an upper bound on future water needs if there were no policy interventions. The Optimistic Scenario (1) suggests a future ADE population of nearly 7,000,000 by 2050, requiring more than 5,000 Mm3 of water annually. Despite reductions in per-capita water use assumed in the Optimistic Scenarios, overall water demand increases, driven by population growth in the M&I sector. The Optimistic Scenario with adaptation (1.1) suggests that future total water demand could be kept near current levels even with substantial population growth. Reductions in water demand from the three big outdoor users (agriculture, amenity and forests) saves more than 1,000 Mm 3 per year when compared to the Optimistic Scenarios without these adaptations. Future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the Optimistic Scenarios results in a relatively small increase in water demand of about 3% by 2050 (1.2), and thus a comparison of all three Optimistic Scenarios suggests that societal adaptations to reducing water demand will likely be more important than future warming. Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi Scenarios of Future Annual Water Demand for the ADE Figure ‎5‐1. Total annual water demand estimates for the nine Scenarios. 117
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
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as well as parts of the Industrial
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up to help to assess technology nee
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framework that has relevance to the
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to be estimated reliably and hence
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
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8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
Page 73: Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
Page 77 and 78: Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
Page 79 and 80: in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
Page 81 and 82: Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
Page 83 and 84: Total installed capacity equals 648
Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
Page 99 and 100: neglected infrastructure, regional
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Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133 and 134: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
Page 135 and 136: Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Page 151 and 152: 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154: over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156: 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158: include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160: (Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162: camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164: 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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