climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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is expected to continue at a significant rate for centuries, even if <strong>climate</strong> forcing is stabilized (IPCC, 2001). From a planning perspective, it is important to acknowledge and accept that more than 10 meters of sea-level rise is possible, depending on the emission scenario considered, and albeit over a long time frame (IPCC, 2007). In addition to the effects of sea level rise on social and economic structures, the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems is also of particular concern. Ecosystems in the UAE are particularly vulnerable, dominated by the intricate ecologies of coastal sabkha (saltencrusted flats), mangrove wetlands, and areas that provide habitat for a wide variety of flora and fauna. The most extensive system of tidal lagoons and creeks lies in the vicinity of Abu Dhabi city behind the barrier island complex. Regionally, sea level rise is projected to result in increased soil salinization, which will affect inland agriculture and forestry projects, as well as resolved in flooding in most of the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) coastal cities and towns (Brown, 2003). in particular, to the impacts of sea level rise given its current socioeconomic conditions in coastal areas is quite significant. After accounting for future development and population increases in these areas, sea level rise poses important Emirate-wide policy questions regarding current and future development plans and investment decisions. The Abu Dhabi Environment Agency published a “Marine and Coastal Environment Sector Paper” in April 2006, which devotes some attention to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, though the treatment was brief relative to the magnitude of the threat. This analysis builds on existing work, with substantial space devoted to both a qualitative review of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> impacts on the coastal zone as well as a quantitative assessment of sea level rise on coastal areas, presented as a series of 2-dimensional maps indicating the extent of coastal inundation. A sea level rise (SLR) inventory of the coastal regions of the UAE is considered central to the assessment of the vulnerability and potential adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the region and is a key component of the study that follows. The potential exposure of the UAE, Abu Dhabi 16 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems Coastal zones are one of the most vulnerable areas to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> given the increased certainty of a rise in mean sea level. As mentioned earlier, the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, posits an upper boundary for global sea-level rise by 2100 of 0.59m. Beyond 2100, sea level rise projections are increasingly dependent on emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2007). Sea level <strong>change</strong>s are induced by both natural factors such as changing ocean basin volume and depth as the earth’s plates separate and collide with each other, as well as deglaciation from anthropogenic global warming. Taking a step back to clarify the terms used, mean sea level (MSL) is the average level of the sea’s surface, as measured relative to a fixed level on the land. MSL is typically calculated over long periods, usually averaged over the 19 year lunar cycle as it smoothes tidal variations. There are seasonal or annual <strong>change</strong>s in MSL in addition to gradual increases in MSL that scientists have tracked over time. Deglaciation of continental ice caps, in particular, can <strong>change</strong> sea level by tens of meters (Emery and Aubrey, 1991). Deglaciation <strong>change</strong>s the volume of water in the ocean, which is known as a eustatic sea level <strong>change</strong>. The IPCC estimates, however, do not include ice-sheet dynamics even though over a long time frame, more than 10 meters of sea-level rise is possible, depending on the emission scenario and assumptions regarding ice-sheet dynamics (IPCC, 2007). Figure 2-1 shows a breakdown of contributing factors to mean sea level rise. As the IPCC explains, the data in this figure are for 1961 to 2003 (light blue) and 1993 to 2003 (dark blue). The bars represent a 90% error range. Sea level <strong>change</strong> is the sum of the upper four entries (thermal expansion through Antarctica) in addition to the observed rate of rise. For the sum, the error has been calculated as the square root of the sum of squared errors of the contributions; to obtain the error for the difference, combine errors of the sum and the observed rate (IPCC WGI, Chapter 5). Researcher Dr. Vivien Gornitz, jointly posted at the Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space studies, explains global trends further. She writes that 20th century global sea level, according to tide gauge data, has been increasing by 1.7-1.8 mm/yr and that most of this rise is due to ocean warming and mountain glaciers melting, which have receded dramatically in many places especially during the last few decades. She continues, “since 1993, an even higher sea level trend of about 2.8 mm/yr has been measured from the TOPEX/ POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Analysis of longer tide-gauge records (1870-2004) also suggests possible late 20th century acceleration in global sea level” (Gornitz, 2007). Computed from satellite altimetry from January 1993 to October 2005, Figure ‎2‐2 captures these variations in global mean by plotting the Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates Figure ‎2-1. Estimates of the various contributions to global mean sea level <strong>change</strong>. Source: (IPCC, 2007) Figure ‎2‐2. Variations in global mean sea level. Source: (IPCC WGI, 2007) 17
Page 2 and 3: Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6: Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9: 9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21 and 22: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 23 and 24: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
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Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
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Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
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4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
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Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
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Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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139
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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